Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico.

Parmenter, Robert; Yadav, Ekta Pratap; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Ettestad, Paul; Gage, Kenneth L.

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.1999.61.814

Cited by 196 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Increased plague intensity after wet years, and reduced plague intensity during and after dry years in northern China is consistent with the trophic cascade hypothesis (18,21). Abundant precipitation has been demonstrated to promote population growth of small rodents through increased food availability in many continents (25)(26)(27).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…In New Mexico, human plague cases occurred more frequently after winter and spring periods with above-average precipitation (18). Time-lagged winter-spring precipitation was also positively associated with the frequency of human plague cases in the southwestern United States (19).…”

mentioning

confidence: 81%

“…been linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, specifically, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Ninõ Southern Oscillation explain much of the plague variability in the western United States (20). The trophic cascade hypothesis was proposed to explain the positive effect of precipitation on human plague (18,21). According to this hypothesis, increase of rainfall often leads to an increase of food resources and then to increased rodent and flea populations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Liu

Stige

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/ wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions. climate variations | Yersinia pestis | generalized additive modeling

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

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confidence: 81%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Liu

Stige

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Nonetheless, we believe such an association with agricultural intensity and plague case occurrence is biologically plausible. According to a trophic cascade hypothesis, [35][36][37] areas with increased primary production of food crops may increase the carrying capacity of rodents. Several quantitative models have demonstrated that the probability of plague epizootics, which represent periods when humans are at greatest risk for exposure to infectious fleas, 38 is dependent on reaching critical thresholds of key rodent hosts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Human Risk of Exposure to Plague Bacteria in Northwestern Uganda Based on Remotely Sensed Predictors

Eisen¹,

Griffith²,

Borchert³

et al. 2010

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis , has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis .

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“…Our findings corroborate those of other studies on temporal associations with human plague incidence [18][19][20] . Parmenter et al 21 found that the cyclical pattern of the annual distribution of plague cases in New Mexico (USA) was associated with fluctuations in the rodent population or in the rodents' responses to environmental variations such as food and shelter availability.…”

Section: Yearmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

Sousa

Alencar

Almeida

et al. 2017

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop.

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Introduction:In Brazil, the plague is established in several foci located mainly in the northeastern part of the country, where it alternates between active and quiescent periods. These foci in the State of Ceará have high epidemiological importance. In addition to other plague detection activities, plague areas can be monitored through serological surveys of dogs and cats (domestic carnivores), which, following feeding on plague-infected rodents, can develop mild to severe forms of the disease and produce long-lasting antibodies. This study aimed to characterize the circulation dynamics and spatial distribution of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats in plague foci areas of Ceará. Methods: An ecological study was conducted to analyze the temporal series and spatial distribution of secondary data obtained from domestic carnivore serum surveillance in Ceará's plague areas from 1990 to 2014. Results: Joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend was a reduction in antibody-positive animals. The mean proportion of antibody-positivity during the whole study period was 1.5% (3,023/203,311) for dogs, and 0.7% (426/61,135) for cats, with more than 4% antibody-positivity in dogs in 1997 and 2002. Antibody titers ranging from 1/16 to 1/64 were frequent. Despite fluctuations and a significant reduction, in recent years, there were antibody-positive animals annually throughout the study period, and the localities containing antibody-positive animals increased in number. Conclusion: Yersinia pestis is actively circulating in the study areas, posing a danger to the human population.

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Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico.

Cited by 196 publications

References 23 publications

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Assessing Human Risk of Exposure to Plague Bacteria in Northwestern Uganda Based on Remotely Sensed Predictors

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

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