1998
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.00080
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Incomplete Information in Monetary Policy Games: Rules Rather Than a Conservative Central Banker

Abstract: Time inconsistency in monetary policy can be addressed appointing a conservative central banker. But incomplete information about the central banker's preferences impairs the performance of delegation schemes. Firstly, the ensuing ex‐ante variability of monetary response lowers welfare. Secondly, partial independence schemes may prove inadequate because reputation — not only legal arrangements — defines the actual degree of independence. The incumbent may exploit his reputation to impose too conservative polic… Show more

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Cited by 12 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…All these contributions tend to lead to an argument for some weight conservatism, but the different types of stochastic inflation bias produce differing asymmetries between contracts and targets. In a different context, Lossani et al (1998) introduce uncertainty in the Lohmann (1992) variant of the Rogoff delegation scheme to show that appointing a conservative CB might involve major costs. All the various contributions listed above differ somewhat in their suggested solutions to the delegation problem, in line with the different sources of uncertainty.…”
Section: (D) a Comparison With The Current Literaturementioning
confidence: 99%
“…All these contributions tend to lead to an argument for some weight conservatism, but the different types of stochastic inflation bias produce differing asymmetries between contracts and targets. In a different context, Lossani et al (1998) introduce uncertainty in the Lohmann (1992) variant of the Rogoff delegation scheme to show that appointing a conservative CB might involve major costs. All the various contributions listed above differ somewhat in their suggested solutions to the delegation problem, in line with the different sources of uncertainty.…”
Section: (D) a Comparison With The Current Literaturementioning
confidence: 99%
“…In what follows timesubscripts are omitted for current-period variables. The governmentasociety is assumed to have a loss function which assigns a penalty to deviations of in¯ation from an optimal level (which for simplicity is assumed to be zero), 8 and to deviations of output from some output target y: 5 For other recent contributions which employ uncertain CB preferences, see Lossani et al (1997), Nolan and Schaling (1996), and Briault et al (1996). Beetsma and Jensen (1996) independently propose a very similar model to Muscatelli (1995).…”
Section: Optimal In¯ation Targets and Contracts With Uncertain Cb Prementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Finally, for the sake of completeness, we assume that the central bankers are heterogeneous with respect to their degree of conservatism, which is common knowledge. 10 Notably, as we stressed above, the degree of conservatism -10 For more information on uncertainty and central banker's preferences, see Beetsma and Jensen (1998), Muscatelli (1998), Lossani et al (1998), Tillman (2008, Sorge (2013), andMorimoto (2018).…”
Section: Respectively and σ Lmentioning
confidence: 99%