Incorporating climate velocity into the design of climate‐smart networks of marine protected areas

Arafeh‐Dalmau, Nur; Brito‐Morales, Isaac; Schoeman, David S.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Klein, Carissa J.; Richardson, Anthony J.

doi:10.1111/2041-210x.13675

Cited by 35 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Therefore, locating and protecting refugia from additional human pressures is imperative to climate-smart management that is proactive against future changes in biodiversity (Arafeh-Dalmau et al, 2021;Queirós et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Gasbarro

Sowers

Margolin

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef‐forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business‐as‐usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher‐resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi‐scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold‐water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom‐contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth‐driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC habitats and the critical ecosystem services they provide.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Gasbarro

Sowers

Margolin

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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“…Different relationships between climate change and forest loss were found in the study area due to the effect of the spatial gradient and, if forests respond in the way that the velocity mechanism expects, climate velocity should be an important component of management plan for protecting forests in India, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. The metric has been used in the past to assess the vulnerability of areas to future climate change and the utility of protected areas in the future (Arafeh‐Dalmau et al, 2021; Fuentes‐Castillo et al, 2020). Areas where climate velocity is low are likely to be key refuges for many species in the future and management strategies should take this into account and ensure these low velocity areas are as protected from multiple threats as possible.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of climate in past forest loss in an ecologically important region of South Asia

Haughan

Pettorelli

Potts

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Tropical forests in India have declined at an alarming rate over the past century, with extensive literature focusing on the high contributions of agricultural expansions to deforestation, while the effects of climate change have largely been overlooked. Climate change effects, such as increasing temperatures, drought and flooding, have already occurred, and are projected to worsen. Climate velocity, a metric that accounts for spatial heterogeneity in climate, can help identify contiguous areas under greater climate stress and potential climate refuges in addition to traditional temporal trends. Here, we examined the relative contribution of climate changes to forest loss in India during the period 2001–2018, at two spatial (regional and national) and two temporal (seasonal and annual) scales. This includes, for the first time, a characterization of climate velocity in the country. Our findings show that annual forest loss increased substantially over the 17‐year period examined (2001–2018), with the majority of forest loss occurring in the Northeast region. Decreases in temporal trends of temperature and precipitation were most associated with forest losses, but there was large spatial and seasonal variation in the relationship. In every region except the Northeast, forest losses were correlated with faster velocities of at least one climate variable but overlapping areas of high velocities were rare. Our findings indicate that climate changes have played an important role in India's past forest loss, but likely remain secondary to other factors at present. We stress concern for climates velocities recorded in the country, reaching 97 km year−1, and highlight that understanding the different regional and seasonal relationships between climatic conditions and forest distributions will be key to effective protection of the country's remaining forests as climate change accelerates.

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“…Assuring vertical coherence of marine ecosystems against climate change impacts could prevent risking the disruption of trophic interactions and reduce exposure to novel climates 48,53 . Within this framework, information on species observations, potential responses, and climate redistribution patterns across the three dimensions should be considered 54,55 to move towards future climate-smart conservation planning approaches and networks 56 . The methodological framework introduced in this paper could be applied at various spatial scales and different depths, encouraging future studies to investigate multi-variable and multi-dimensional connectivity patterns.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, ecological niche models 57 , metrics of the velocity of isotherm shifts 15,58 , and spatial patterns of future thermal analogs 16,59 , offer projections of future redistribution of biodiversity. Many such spatial trajectories are now available and are being used to assess conservation efficiency and policy recommendations 54,60 . Yet, our results demonstrate that delineating potential isotherm shifts based on distinct time slots of climate alone (i.e., current and projected climatic niche, climate change velocity over distinct periods, thermal analogs) largely overlook the inherent dynamics of seascape climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global patterns of sea surface climate connectivity for marine species

Petsas

Doxa

Almpanidou

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

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A potential strategy for marine species to cope with warming oceans is to track areas with optimal thermal conditions and shift their spatial distributions. However, the ability of species to successfully reach these areas in the future depends on the length of the paths and their exposure to extreme climatic conditions. Here, we use model predictions of sea surface temperature changes to explore climate connectivity and potential trajectories of marine species to reach their optimal surface thermal analogs by the end of the century. We find that longer trajectories may be required for marine species of the northern than the southern oceans and that the former may be more exposed to extreme conditions than the latter. At key biodiversity hotspots, most future surface thermal analogs may be located in very remote areas, posing a significant challenge for local species to reach them. The new marine connectivity approach presented here could be used to inform future conservation policies.

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Incorporating climate velocity into the design of climate‐smart networks of marine protected areas

Abstract: Nur Arafeh-Dalmau and Isaac Brito-Morales contributed equally to this work.

Cited by 35 publications

References 85 publications

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef‐building cold‐water coral on the southeast US margin

The role of climate in past forest loss in an ecologically important region of South Asia

Global patterns of sea surface climate connectivity for marine species

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