Incorporating futures thinking into the theory of change: Case and lessons learned from a social enterprise intermediary in Australia

Abstract

The theory of change is an established, widely used approach to guide the design, implementation, and evaluation of change initiatives. Methodological literature primarily focuses on this approach as a way to model causal processes and, secondarily, as a participatory way for groups to explore a change process. We elevate a third use of a theory of change process: to (re)imagine future possibilities. Part 1 synthesizes prior literature to contrast three purposes (i.e., explanation, exploration, and (re)imagination) and emphasizes the opportunities for forward‐looking, imaginative uses by combining the theory of change with foresight approaches. Part 2 presents a case example of a year‐long process to reimagine how to support social enterprises and women entrepreneurs in Australia and the Pacific involving iterative co‐development of a theory of change complemented by futures thinking. We close with lessons and future directions at the intersection of the theory of change and futures studies.