Incorporating Household Gathering and Mode Decisions in Large‐Scale No‐Notice Evacuation Modeling

Liu, Sirui; Murray‐Tuite, Pamela; Schweitzer, Lisa

doi:10.1111/mice.12008

Cited by 37 publications

(23 citation statements)

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“…In the case of a no-notice evacuation, both the time and resources allowed for preparation are limited. Thus, the planning process must emphasize flexibility in operations and may not conform to well-structured strategies [13,35]. For example, if a nonotice hazard occurs during rush hours, there may not be sufficient time to reverse the lanes and regulate the traffic [13].…”

Section: Analysis Of Road Network Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adopting proactive response strategies, such as contraflow traffic control, optimal 2 Journal of Advanced Transportation routing to shelters, and preparedness of emergency supplies, could help reduce the destruction and loss of life to a great extent [10]. No-notice hazards, such as terrorist attacks and chemical spills, take place without a priori expectation [11][12][13]. In response to no-notice hazards, it is nearly impossible to estimate the development of the scenario, including the magnitude, duration, and severity of the incidents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When disaster strikes without warning, effective communication of real-time traffic information is essential [11]. Studies of no-notice evacuations are limited in scope as modeling the uncertainty of built environment poses a considerable challenge [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Road Network Vulnerability for Evacuees and First Responders in No-Notice Evacuation

Chen

2017

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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The concept of vulnerability has been employed to develop transport systems that sustain devastating disasters and ensure the efficient evacuation of neighborhoods. Existing studies of road network vulnerability overlook two important aspects of analysis: the no-notice evacuation and the different objectives of evacuees and first responders. First, a no-notice evacuation leaves limited time for proactive emergency planning; therefore, rescue strategies in this scenario rely heavily on real-time traffic information. Second, the goal of first responders in an evacuation is to move into an affected area immediately after a hazardous event unfolds, and the risk they face differs from that of evacuees. To this end, this paper develops a network-based model to evaluate vulnerability during a no-notice evacuation and applies it to a case study in Dublin, OH, USA. The model is suited to assessing network vulnerability in response to events with uncertainty and coordinating traffic control strategies in a no-notice evacuation. This study can become a valuable complement to the methodological conceptualization of vulnerability and can provide insights into developing comprehensive emergency management plans.

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Section: Analysis Of Road Network Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Road Network Vulnerability for Evacuees and First Responders in No-Notice Evacuation

Chen

2017

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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“…Ahari and Niaki [183] studied 77 tasks and 31 models in gas well-drilling projects. Liu et al [198] incorporate household gathering and mode decisions in large-scale evacuation modeling.…”

Section: Hmcdm Applications In Multidisciplinary Domain Of Engineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods: A Review of Applications in Engineering

et al. 2016

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Abstract. To support evaluation and selection processes in engineering, formal decisionmaking methods can be used. A great number of works applying diverse Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques for engineering problems have been published recently. A new approach of hybrid MCDM methods has been developed, rapidly, during the past few years. The current paper aims at lling the gap and summarizing publications related to applications of hybrid MCDM for engineering. The study is limited solely to papers referred in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Core Collection academic database. It aims to review how the papers have been distributed by period of publishing and by country; multiple-criteria decision-making methods have been used, most frequently, in developing hybrid approaches and in domains the methods have been applied for. For a more detailed analysis of applications, journal articles from engineering research area were grouped by research domains and further by analyzed issues. Findings of the current review paper con rm that hybrid MCDM approaches, due to their abilities in integrating di erent techniques, can assist in handling miscellaneous information taking into account stakeholders' preferences when making decisions in engineering.

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“…Community and social networks also play an important role in influencing how people respond to a disaster. People tend to keep within their group (community) in their decision response in such situations [33], so they will stand together with their family when deciding to stay or to leave [34]. Moreover, in crises people are more easily influenced when they interact with a group rather than with individuals.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

et al. 2018

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As the size of human populations increases, so does the severity of the impacts of natural disasters. This is partly because more people are now occupying areas which are susceptible to hazardous natural events, hence, evacuation is needed when such events occur. Evacuation can be the most important action to minimise the impact of any disaster, but in many cases there are always people who are reluctant to leave. This paper describes an agent-based model (ABM) of evacuation decisions, focusing on the emergence of reluctant people in times of crisis and using Merapi, Indonesia as a case study. The individual evacuation decision model is influenced by several factors formulated from a literature review and survey. We categorised the factors influencing evacuation decisions into two opposing forces, namely, the driving factors to leave (evacuate) versus those to stay, to formulate the model. The evacuation decision (to stay/leave) of an agent is based on an evaluation of the strength of these driving factors using threshold-based rules. This ABM was utilised with a synthetic population from census microdata, in which everyone is characterised by the decision rule. Three scenarios with varying parameters are examined to calibrate the model. Validations were conducted using a retrodictive approach by performing spatial and temporal comparisons between the outputs of simulation and the real data. We present the results of the simulations and discuss the outcomes to conclude with the most plausible scenario. of 30year, Indonesia was the fourth most frequently affected Asian country [4]. Among the various natural hazards, volcanic eruptions pose a significant threat to Indonesia, as it is located within the "Ring of Fire" [5]. Merapi is the most active volcano in Indonesia, and the 2010 eruption was ranked third in the world since 2005 in terms of impact [4]. Being in such susceptible areas, people living close to Merapi should, therefore, develop their awareness and preparedness to evacuate when a hazard occurs.Evacuation is an important life-saving action in any disaster [6], with a history as old as human history in saving lives from natural disasters [7]. It takes place by moving people from a hazardous area to a safer place in a very limited time [8]. This time limit depends on the speed of the onset of the hazard. Some hazards occur rapidly, with others more slowly [1,9]. For example, hurricanes or earthquakes happen very quickly, while global temperature variations, rises in sea level, drought, and disease affect society more slowly [9]. For fast-onset hazards, immediate responses leading to evacuation are needed, because being at the wrong place at the wrong time will quickly lead to fatalities. Volcanic eruptions can happen several days after the initial signs of instability, but it is also possible for them to happen several weeks later [10]. Therefore, immediate responses from the surrounding population are needed, but there are often cases of people who refuse, or are reluctant to evacuate from hazardous are...

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Incorporating Household Gathering and Mode Decisions in Large‐Scale No‐Notice Evacuation Modeling

Abstract: Household members tend to evacuate as a unit. However, most engineering-based evacuation models treat evacuees as independent and

Cited by 37 publications

References 38 publications

Modeling Road Network Vulnerability for Evacuees and First Responders in No-Notice Evacuation

Modeling Road Network Vulnerability for Evacuees and First Responders in No-Notice Evacuation

Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods: A Review of Applications in Engineering

Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia

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