Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling

Beckage, Brian; Moore, Frances C.; Lacasse, Katherine

doi:10.1038/s41562-022-01478-5

Cited by 28 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 141 publications

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“…First, there is increasing evidence that the set of emissions scenarios can be probabilistically constrained within the range of scenarios used for climate modeling that do not have probabilities associated with them (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs). These limits are emerging both from the developing policy, institutional, technical, and economic landscape, as well as work to structurally model the coupled climate‐social‐political system in order to probabilistically project these trends forward (Beckage et al., 2018, 2022; Moore et al., 2022; Otto et al., 2020). Moore et al.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…constrained within the range of scenarios used for climate modeling that do not have probabilities associated with them (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs). These limits are emerging both from the developing policy, institutional, technical, and economic landscape, as well as work to structurally model the coupled climate-social-political system in order to probabilistically project these trends forward (Beckage et al, 2018(Beckage et al, , 2022Moore et al, 2022;Otto et al, 2020). Moore et al (2022) developed a model in which climate policy emerges endogenously within the coupled climate-social system, partially constraining this using historical trends in public opinion and climate policy ambition and find a more constrained range of plausible temperature outcomes than based on the full range of RCP-SSP scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

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New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints

et al. 2023

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Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints

et al. 2023

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“…Existing studies discuss the adverse shocks of climate change, including agriculture, fitness and social stability (Belford et al , 2022; Paniw et al , 2022; Beckage et al , 2022). How temperature impacts society and the economy is challenging (Li et al , 2018) and an increasing number of studies have focused on this.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to climate change: substitution effect of water on residential electricity consumption

Zhang,

Cao

2023

IJCCSM

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Purpose As climate change impacts residential life, people typically use heating or cooling appliances to deal with varying outside temperatures, bringing extra electricity demand and living costs. Water is more cost-effective than electricity and could provide the same body utility, which may be an alternative choice to smooth electricity consumption fluctuation and provide living cost incentives. Therefore, this study aims to identify the substitute effect of water on the relationship between climate change and residential electricity consumption. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies the substitute effect of water and potential heterogeneity using panel data from 295 cities in China over the period 2004–2019. The quantile regression and the partially linear functional coefficient model in this study could reduce the risks of model misspecification and enable detailed identification of the substitution mechanism, which is in line with reality and precisely determines the heterogeneity at different consumption levels. Findings The results indicate that residential water consumption can weaken the impact of cooling demand on residential electricity consumption, especially in low-income regions. Moreover, residents exhibited adaptive asymmetric behaviors. As the electricity consumption level increased, the substitute effects gradually get strong. The substitute effects gradually strengthened when residential water consumption per capita exceeds 16.44 tons as the meeting of the basic life guarantee. Originality/value This study identifies the substitution role of water and heterogeneous behaviors in the residential sector in China. These findings augment the existing literature and could aid policymakers, investors and residents regarding climate issues, risk management and budget management.

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“…Yet, two-way feedback mechanisms link climate and social processes: human behaviour changes the climate, and the climate changes human opinions and consequently human behaviour. Coupled humanenvironment models are already widely applied to study other systems such as fisheries and forests and the need for coupled social-climate models has been noted [15][16][17]. Such ecoevolutionary models where the environment changes depending on the actions of the players again adds to the rich dynamics of the system [18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of successful mitigation in coupled social-climate dynamics

Shu,

2023

Proc. R. Soc. A.

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Understanding the impact of human behaviour is crucial for successful mitigation of climate change across the globe. To shed light onto this issue, here we couple the forest dieback model with human behaviours. Using evolutionary game theory, we build a time-delay system where forest growth is impacted by both temperature and human mitigation choices, the latter being informed by temperature forecasts. Simulations of the coupled system over 200 years show us the varying outcomes: forest dies out and no one is a mitigator, forest dies out and everyone is a mitigator, or the forest survives and everyone is a mitigator. There exist rare cases where no one is a mitigator and yet the forest survives, but with a low coverage. We also find occasional oscillations where the proportion of mitigators vary between 0 and 1. Our results are based on simple models but have profound insights into determinants of behaviour changes desired in social-climate dynamics.

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Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling

Cited by 28 publications

References 141 publications

New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints

New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints

Adapting to climate change: substitution effect of water on residential electricity consumption

Determinants of successful mitigation in coupled social-climate dynamics

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