Incorporating Maintenance Effectiveness in the Estimation of Dynamic Infrastructure Performance Models

Abstract

We show how intervention analysis can be used in conjunction with dynamic performance modeling to analyze the effect of maintenance activities on the performance of infrastructure facilities. Specifically, we consider state-space specifications of autoregressive moving averages with exogenous inputs models to develop deterioration and inspection models for infrastructure facilities, and intervention analysis to estimate transitory and permanent effects of maintenance, for example, performance jumps or deterioration rate changes. To illustrate the methodology, we analyze the effectiveness of an overlay on a flexible pavement section from the AASHO Road Test. The results show the effect of the overlay on improvements both on surface distress, that is, rutting and slope variance, as well as on the pavement's underlying serviceability. The results also provide evidence that the overlay changes the pavement's response to traffic, that is, the overlay causes a reduction in the rate at which traffic damages the pavement.

Integrative modeling of performance deterioration and maintenance effectiveness for infrastructure assets with missing condition data

“…The second challenge is how the maintenance effectiveness is integrated into the natural deterioration modeling. There are in general four types of integrated models for deterioration and maintenance: (1) separate models where the performance and maintenance models are developed separately, for example, Paterson () and Shahin (); (2) maintenance activities are considered as exogenous variables of the performance deterioration models, for example, Butler, Carmichael, and Flanagan (); (3) simultaneous equation models where the condition and maintenance are considered as endogenous variables to each other, for example, Ben‐Akiva and Ramaswamy (); and (4) dynamic models where maintenance activities are represented as exogenous variables whereas the condition is history dependent, for example, Ben‐Akiva and Ramaswamy () and Chu and Durango‐Cohen (). A more thorough review on the above models was presented in Chu and Durango‐Cohen ().…”

“…The need for integrative modeling of asset deterioration and maintenance effectiveness is a fine point that is worth highlighting here. First of all, and as have also been pointed out by Chu and Durango-Cohen (2008), modeling deterioration and maintenance separately does not necessarily validate the combined use for prediction of long-term asset conditions under various maintenance policies. Great difficulties will be encountered in sustaining the dependency between asset condition and maintenance when they are forecasted using two or more separate models.…”

“…(2) maintenance activities are considered as exogenous variables of the performance deterioration models, for example, Butler, Carmichael, and Flanagan (1985); (3) simultaneous equation models where the condition and maintenance are considered as endogenous variables to each other, for example, Ben-Akiva and Ramaswamy (1993); and (4) dynamic models where maintenance activities are represented as exogenous variables whereas the condition is history dependent, for example, Ben-Akiva and Ramaswamy (1993) and Chu and Durango-Cohen (2008). A more thorough review on the above models was presented in Chu and Durango-Cohen (2008).…”

Optimal Long‐Term Infrastructure Maintenance Planning Accounting for Traffic Dynamics

“…Most notable are the formulations based on Markov decision processes (MDPs), where transition probabilities are obtained either via statistical estimation techniques (e.g., see Golabi et al, 1982; Carnahan, 1988; Madanat and Wan Ibrahim, 1995; Mishalani and Madanat, 2002), or via expert opinions. More recently, researchers have examined the use of state‐space specifications of time series models to estimate infrastructure performance models (e.g., see Chu and Durango‐Cohen, 2007; Chu and Durango‐Cohen, 2008a,b).…”

Effect of Resource Allocation Policies on Urban Transport Diversity

“…Several sources proposed optimization models to allocate the asset of the magnitude and scheduling of maintenance and rehabilitation (Adeli and Karim, 1997; Karim and Adeli, 1999; Kuhn and Madanat, 2006; Dridi et al, 2008) as well as to illustrate the allocation of social infrastructure (Bigotte and Antunes, 2007) and facilities (Castillo et al, 2008; Fan and Machemehl, 2008) via exact and heuristic methods. Moreover, Chu and Durango‐Cohen (2008) introduced a time‐series model for supporting the resource allocation to preserve infrastructure facilities.…”