2018
DOI: 10.1126/science.aat3466
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Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate

Abstract: Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains-rice, maize, and wheat-but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25% per degree of global mean surface warmi… Show more

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Cited by 1,001 publications
(642 citation statements)
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“…Various reports have predicted that the global air temperature will increase by 1.8–4.0 °C, on average, over the next 100 years . Consequently, warmer and shorter winter seasons could hamper or delay the termination of the diapause in some eggs and, thus, ultimately reduce the initial spring populations . However, it is quite likely that P. gallicus will adapt to a wide range of variable climatic conditions due to the existence of females with different reproductive strategies.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Various reports have predicted that the global air temperature will increase by 1.8–4.0 °C, on average, over the next 100 years . Consequently, warmer and shorter winter seasons could hamper or delay the termination of the diapause in some eggs and, thus, ultimately reduce the initial spring populations . However, it is quite likely that P. gallicus will adapt to a wide range of variable climatic conditions due to the existence of females with different reproductive strategies.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Controlling crop pests can be done via the use of pesticides, but these entail environmental and public health issues and they are often ineffective due to the rapid evolution of pesticide resistance. Given the possible increase in crop losses to insect pests due to global warming (Deutsch et al, 2018) and the restrictions and added dangers of natural enemies importation, optimizing existing and native biocontrol agents by selecting from their intraspecific variation in 'biocontrol' traits can be an alternative (although the ethical issue of disrupting ecosystems needs to be accounted for). However, the use of natural enemies also poses legal and ethical challenges of its own.…”
Section: The Use Of Experimental Evolution In Biological Controlmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A model projection by Deutsch et al. () estimates that arthropods will consume 10%–25% more cereal crops for every 1°C rise in global temperature. Yet, despite the urgent need to increase food production for growing human populations, biodiversity preservation on agroecosystems is equally important.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Herbivorous arthropod species can be pests or potential pests of agricultural crops, and many of them are expected to increase in abundance, productivity, and geographic range due to climate change (Thomson, Macfadyen & Hoffmann, 2012;Wheeler & von Braun, 2013). A model projection by Deutsch et al (2018) estimates that arthropods will consume 10%-25% more cereal crops for every 1°C rise in global temperature. Yet, despite the urgent need to increase food production for growing human populations, biodiversity preservation on agroecosystems is equally important.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%