Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes

Lenderink, Geert; Meijgaard, E. van

doi:10.1038/ngeo262

Cited by 917 publications

(841 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…This value is at odds with the model-predicted increase of 2%/K in precipitation intensity proposed in a study using an ensemble of 17 latest-generation climate models [13]. Locally, Lenderink and Meijgaard [14], using hourly precipitation observations from De Bilt in the Netherlands, found that precipitation extremes increased with rising temperatures twice as fast as expected theoretically from the Clausious-Clapeyron equation when the daily mean temperature exceeds 12°C. This result can be explained by Trenberth et al [1], who indicated that additional latent heat released from precipitation invigorated the precipitation system and further enhanced the convergence of moisture.…”

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confidence: 44%

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors. precipitation spectra, global warming, spatial scale, extreme precipitation, composite analysis Citation:Wu F T, Fu C B. Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions.

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confidence: 44%

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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“…The Clausius-Clapeyron relation indicates the maximum capacity of an air mass for holding water vapour, which increases by 6−7% per degree of temperature increase (Allen & Ingram 2002). This percentage of water vapour enhancement could decrease or increase due to various factors, such as region, duration, season or temperature range (Lenderink & van Meijgaard 2008, Berg et al 2013.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To understand the relationship between temperature and precipitation, we followed the method described by Lenderink & van Meijgaard (2008). In this respect, the hourly precipitation values were paired with their corresponding temperatures for all wet hours (precipitation > 0 mm) at each station for nights from 2011 to 2015.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban impacts on air temperature and precipitation over The Netherlands

Golroudbary¹,

Zeng²,

Mannaerts³

et al. 2018

Clim. Res.

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The detection of changes in the weather of urban areas is an important issue for understanding the impact of weather on human lives. Five years of basic weather observations (2011−2015) from automatic and amateur networks across The Netherlands were used to investigate the urban effects on meteorological parameters with a focus on temperature (e.g. urban heat island [UHI]) and precipitation. Representative stations were selected based on metadata and a set of criteria for data quality control. An hourly analysis indicates that UHIs are a nocturnal phenomenon in The Netherlands and are more prominent after sunset, when they exceed 2°C. A seasonal analysis shows that UHIs occur in all seasons during the year, with the most significant UHI occurring in the summer. Furthermore, the differences in the precipitation of urban and rural areas were shown to be greatest after sunrise during the day. The maximum hourly UHI and hourly precipitation distributions were analyzed using a generalized extreme value model. The occurrences of maximum precipitation are likely to be more frequent at urban stations than at the nearby rural stations. Additionally, the distinct seasonal cycle of precipitation that is dependent on the UHI demonstrates that the maximum UHI and precipitation occurred in the summer. Our results indicate that the UHI and precipitation enhancements in Dutch urban residential areas, as obtained from the data of weather amateurs, are in agreement with the results presented in the literature, and that 7% more precipitation occurs in cities than in rural areas.

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“…The precipitation rate p has a simple dependence on T according to p = e βTp . This exponential dependence on temperature is motivated by the thermodynamic scaling of precipitation extremes under climate change 12 and the observed covariability of daily precipitation extremes with surface temperature 32 . The normalized precipitation ratep is assumed to follow a gamma distribution on wet days 33 , such that its probability density function, P , is given by…”

Section: Derivation Of Theory For Snowfall Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

O’Gorman

2014

Nature

194

142

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Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate [1][2][3][4] . Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts [5][6][7] .Simulations with climate models indicate that annual-mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures 3,4 . The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a high-emissions scenario, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1000m, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median as compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 • C as compared to -14 • C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that 1 is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.Extremes of daily precipitation (including liquid and solid precipitation) are found to increase in intensity with climate warming in observations and simulations [8][9][10] , and this is physically consistent with greater saturation specific humidities in a warmer atmosphere [11][12][13] . However, little is known about the physical basis for changes in daily snowfall extremes, their past changes on a global or hemispheric scale, or how they change in global climate-model simulations. Regional observational studies show large interdecadal variations in measures of snowfall extremes 14 , but not necessarily significant long-term trends 15 . Extremes of seasonal-mean snowfall have been studied previously 16, 17 , but extremes on shorter timescales may respond differently 14 . Physically we expect heavy snowfall events to occur in a relatively narrow range of temperatures below the rain-snow transition; at much lower temperatures it is not "too cold to snow", but low saturation specific humidities make heavy snowfall unlikely. However, it is not clear what this means for the response to climate change, and previous studies have differed in their findings as to whether heavy snowfall events are predominantly associated with anomalou...

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Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes

Cited by 917 publications

References 18 publications

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

Urban impacts on air temperature and precipitation over The Netherlands

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

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