Increase in Population Exposure Due to Dry and Wet Extremes in India Under a Warming Climate

Kumar, Rohini; Mishra, Vimal

doi:10.1029/2020ef001731

Cited by 30 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 87 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These trends were mainly caused by dry and wet spells and anthropogenic activities in central India, where climate change impacts are superior to anthropogenic impacts. Previous research studies (Asoka & Mishra, 2020;Kumar & Mishra, 2020;Palmate et al, 2017a;Salvi & Ghosh, 2016;Singh et al, 2014;Singh & Ranade, 2010;Sinha et al, 2018;Thomas et al, 2015;Vinnarasi & Dhanya, 2016) support our findings regarding the effect of dry and wet spells and anthropogenic stress in the Indian region.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In dry years, significant climatic land degradation response to NDVI has been observed due to changes in T max and T diff parameters that declined the BRB's vegetative growth under the prolonged dry spell effect (Figure 10). Thus, the temperature is the most affecting climate variable during dry years and tends to affect natural ecosystem functions (Duhan et al, 2013; Kumar & Mishra, 2020; Singh et al, 2014; Thomas et al, 2015). An inadequate soil moisture condition is caused due to deficient and uneven distribution of rainfall in Madhya Pradesh (Duhan & Pandey, 2013; Vinnarasi & Dhanya, 2016), which adversely affecting the crop growth in central India (Asoka & Mishra, 2020; Lal et al, 1999).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, an adequate soil and water conservation treatment is needed for maintaining provisioning and regulating ecosystem service values (Singh et al, 2014; Venkatesh and Anshumali, 2020). Also, the dominant CL area can be protected and sustained by adapting optimal management interventions for climatic and hydrologic resiliency of different crops (Kumar & Mishra, 2020; Sinha et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessing the land degradation and greening response to changes in hydro‐climatic variables using a conceptual framework: A case‐study in central India

Palmate

Pandey

et al. 2021

Land Degrad Dev

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Field‐based investigations of land use/cover changes are time‐consuming and challenging for large areas, where short‐ and long‐term changes in climatic and hydrologic variables affect ecosystem services. Thus, there is a substantial demand to boost the new modelling framework and employ remote sensing capabilities to quantify hydro‐climatic impacts on land dynamics. In this study, a conceptual framework has used to assess the climatic land greening, climatic land degradation, nonclimatic (hydrological) land greening, and nonclimatic (anthropogenic) land degradation responses with hydro‐climatic variables under dry and wet spells' effect in the Betwa River basin (BRB) of central India. Remotely sensed moderate‐resolution imaging spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and land cover) time‐series datasets had been used to quantify spatiotemporal changes in major land use/cover classes. The standardized coefficients for rainfall (β = 0.62) and relative humidity (β = 0.32) showed their high relative importance in the relationship analysis performed using multiple linear regression (MLR). The result indicates that dominant agricultural cropland has been significantly impacted by changes in maximum and diurnal temperature, which affirm degradation, and positively responded by changes in rainfall, minimum temperature, and aridity index, which demonstrate greening wet period. Spatial analysis showed that land degradation affecting ecosystem services had been variedly distributed from the upper to lower basin due to more climatic impacts than anthropogenic disturbances. Thus, the developed conceptual framework can be adopted to discover dynamic land consequences and understand their responses for sustaining ecosystem services in the dominant agricultural region.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing the land degradation and greening response to changes in hydro‐climatic variables using a conceptual framework: A case‐study in central India

Palmate

Pandey

et al. 2021

Land Degrad Dev

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the recent past, a shift in hydroclimate extremes has altered the hydrological cycle around the globe with long‐lasting effects and is likely to shift further under a warming climate (Aadhar & Mishra, 2019; Gu et al., 2020; Kumar & Mishra, 2020). To avoid these adverse impacts, the Paris Agreement suggested mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by keeping the global temperature rise well below 2°C and striving to limit warming to 1.5°C higher than that of the preindustrial period (Gu et al., 2020; Horowitz, 2016; Iyakaremye et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Ullah

Asfaw

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts of droughts are projected to increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections to quantify future changes in increasing drought risks and associated socioeconomic exposure across SA and its subregions under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming. We used two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The most likely realization copula functions are used to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. Simultaneously, changes in the bivariate return period are calculated under a warming climate. The frequency of 50‐year historical droughts (under a bivariate framework) might double across 80% of the SA land area under 1.5°C of warming. Conversely, 12% of SA landmasses may suffer extreme droughts under 2°C of warming. The severe drought episode frequency is expected to increase under 1.5°C (40%–75%) and 2°C (60%–90%) of warming relative to the recent climate. The largest exposure increase is projected in R2 and R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) of the SA population (GDP) could suffer from increased drought risks under the 1.5°C warmer climate, whereas the additional 0.5°C warming will lead to an unbearable regional situation. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C can significantly reduce the drought risk influence in SA. These findings can help disaster‐risk managers to adopt climate‐smart management strategies.

show abstract

“…The recent unprecedented rate of global warming will have potentially profound effects on both natural ecosystems and human societies, for example, by promoting natural hazards growth (Kumar & Mishra, 2020; Wahl et al., 2015), accelerating the hydrologic cycle (Giorgi et al., 2019) and carbon cycle (Gao et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2021), reducing food security (Fujimori et al., 2019; Tai et al., 2014), and facilitating the geographic expansion of many infectious diseases (Liang & Gong, 2017; Waits et al., 2018), resulting in serious economic losses and a range of adverse health effects (Dottori et al., 2018; Sun et al., 2019; Surendran Nair et al., 2020; Watts et al., 2020). In late 2015, the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) resolved to restrict the increase in global mean surface temperature to well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit this even further, to 1.5°C (UNFCCC, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Identifying climate change hotspot regions is critical for planning effective mitigation and adaptation activities. We use standard Euclidean distance (SED) to calculate integrated changes in precipitation and temperature means, interannual variability, and extremes between different future warming levels and a baseline period (1995–2014) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensemble. We find consistent hotspots in the Amazon, central and western Africa, Indonesia and the Tibetan Plateau at warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C for all scenarios explored; the Arctic, Central America and southern Africa emerge as hotspots at 4°C warming and at the end of the 21st century under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. CMIP6 models show higher SED values than CMIP5, suggesting stronger aggregated effects of climate change under the new scenarios. Hotspot time of emergence (TOE) is further investigated; TOE is defined as the year when the climate change signal first exceeds the noise of natural variability in 21st century projections. The results indicate that TOEs for warming would occur over all primary hotspots, with the earliest occurring in the Arctic and Indonesia. For precipitation, TOEs occur before 2100 in the Arctic, the Tibetan Plateau and Central America. Results using a geographical detector model show that patterns of SED are shaped by extreme hot and dry occurrences at low‐to‐medium warming, while precipitation and temperature means and extreme precipitation occurrences are the dominant influences under the high emission scenario and at high warming levels.

show abstract

Increase in Population Exposure Due to Dry and Wet Extremes in India Under a Warming Climate

Cited by 30 publications

References 87 publications

Assessing the land degradation and greening response to changes in hydro‐climatic variables using a conceptual framework: A case‐study in central India

Assessing the land degradation and greening response to changes in hydro‐climatic variables using a conceptual framework: A case‐study in central India

Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About