Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; Jin, Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Collins, Matthew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; England, Matthew H.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Takahashi, K.; Guilyardi, Éric

doi:10.1038/nclimate2492

Cited by 575 publications

(452 citation statements)

References 29 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

403

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Indeed, many of the observed trends in recent decades might be associated with these oscillations (Santos et al, 2012;Barton et al, 2013). Though predictions are controversial, some of these climate oscillations are expected to increase in amplitude or variance with climate change (Timmermann et al, 1999;Kuzmina et al, 2005;Sydeman et al, 2013;Cai et al, 2015), which would further mask monotonic trends.…”

Section: Water Temperatures and The Counteracting Roles Of Upwellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS), stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., "winds to whales") studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

show abstract

Section: Water Temperatures and The Counteracting Roles Of Upwellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It could be argued that we did not even apply an extra intensification due to RCP8.5, and this discrepancy would hold regardless of the future scenario. Considering that we are expected to experience even stronger ENSO events in the future than today (Cai et al, 2014(Cai et al, , 2015, we could have intensified this signal even more. However, our results with this realistic intensification already show the importance of capturing atmosphere-ocean teleconnections in climate simulations for reliable future simulations of the ecosystems.…”

Section: Scenario Selection and Future Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

show abstract

“…Recently, Yeh et al (2009) showed that under projected climate change the proportion of central Pacific ENSO events might increase. Furthermore, Cai et al (2014Cai et al ( , 2015 showed that current projections of climate change for the 21st century suggest an increased future likelihood of both El Niño and La Niña events. Based on the results of our study, potential increases in ENSO activity would results in an increased variability in the CO 2 and H 2 O exchange between the atmosphere and the tropical rainforests in these and similar regions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia to El Niño events

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the main components of CO 2 and H 2 O fluxes between the tropical rainforest and the atmosphere is investigated. The fluxes were continuously measured in an old-growth mountainous tropical rainforest in Central Sulawesi in Indonesia using the eddy covariance method for the period from January 2004 to June 2008. During this period, two episodes of El Niño and one episode of La Niña were observed. All these ENSO episodes had moderate intensity and were of the central Pacific type. The temporal variability analysis of the main meteorological parameters and components of CO 2 and H 2 O exchange showed a high sensitivity of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) of the tropical rainforest to meteorological variations caused by both El Niño and La Niña episodes. Incoming solar radiation is the main governing factor that is responsible for ET and GPP variability. Ecosystem respiration (RE) dynamics depend mainly on the air temperature changes and are almost insensitive to ENSO. Changes in precipitation due to moderate ENSO events did not have any notable effect on ET and GPP, mainly because of sufficient soil moisture conditions even in periods of an anomalous reduction in precipitation in the region.

show abstract

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

Abstract: International audienc

Cited by 575 publications

References 29 publications

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

Response of CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia to El Niño events

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

Abstract: International audienc

Cited by 575 publications

References 29 publications

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

Response of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia to El Niño events

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Response of CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia to El Niño events