Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions

Abstract

Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 104 km2, mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture

“…The MaxEnt model has been employed with considerable success in the delineation of protected areas for endangered and relict species [17,18], the mapping of invasive species distributions [19,20], crop-designated geographical indications [21,22], and plant disease control [23]. The objective of this study was to determine the intra-and inter-species impacts of GCC on the four species of Trollius in ITAP.…”

Plant Invasion Ecology

“…Predictive modeling of the invasiveness and potential geographical distributions was developed for several widespread vascular plants: Pueraria montana (Fabaceae) [9] and Impatiens glandulifera (Balsaminaceae) [10] in North America and Tagetes minuta [11], Ageratina adenophora [12], and Ambrosia artemisiifolia [13] (all Asteraceae) in China. These models allow habitat suitability to be calculated for the invasive taxa and long-term projections of invasions to be made, thus helping to monitor and manage their spread in areas of concern.…”