Increased Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions in CMIP6 Amplifies Hydrologic Cycle in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Heyblom, Kyle Benjamin; Singh, H. A.; Rasch, Philip J.; DeRepentigny, Patricia

doi:10.1029/2021gl096868

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…However, the energy budget of a regional climate system is affected significantly by horizontal and vertical energy transports of the atmosphere, and the local surface temperature is not directly linked to TOA radiation anomalies, so that the surface radiation is often advantageous to analyzing how the regional surface temperature changes in response to atmospheric radiative perturbations (Andrews et al., 2009; Boeke & Taylor, 2018; Colman, 2015; Lu & Cai, 2009; Sejas et al., 2021). Moreover, changes in surface energy fluxes are directly related to changes in the hydrological cycle (Allen & Ingram, 2002; Previdi, 2010; Zhang et al., 2023) and biogeophysical cycle (Chen et al., 2022; Heyblom et al., 2022; Laguë et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2022; Luyssaert et al., 2014), and can be used to explain the different rates of temperature increase over land versus ocean (Joshi et al., 2008; Toda et al., 2023). Hence, the surface radiation has important environmental impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of Surface Radiative Effects, Heat Fluxes and Their Interactions to Land Surface Temperature Variability

Liu,

Huang,

Yuan

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Land surface temperature anomalies can be linked to changes in local surface energy balance, although the relationship between surface temperature variability and individual radiative processes remains unclear. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of surface radiative effects and non‐radiative heat fluxes to the variance of monthly land surface temperature using European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. The surface energy budget equation is used to link changes in surface radiation, surface heat fluxes and land surface temperature. Subsequently, surface radiation is decomposed into the radiative effects of clouds, air temperature, surface albedo and relative humidity using radiative kernels. The contributions of these radiative processes, including their coupling effects, are quantified using covariance matrices. The results reveal the air temperature radiative effect to be the most significant contributor to the variability of land surface temperature. In addition, the covariance terms reveal important coupling effects. For example, the contribution from the cloud radiative effect is found to be substantially dampened by its coupling with surface heat fluxes. The air temperature radiative effect is further decomposed into a forcing component and a feedback component using different regression methods, in an attempt to separate the air temperature radiative effect as the driver of the surface temperature variability. The cloud radiative effect becomes the primary contributor to the variance of surface temperature after separating the air temperature feedback, while the contribution of the air temperature radiative forcing remains important.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of Surface Radiative Effects, Heat Fluxes and Their Interactions to Land Surface Temperature Variability

Liu,

Huang,

Yuan

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Recent analyses in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; Danabasoglu et al., 2020) have estimated the climate effect of this change in BB emissions variability by comparing simulation scenarios with temporally‐smoothed BB emissions to scenarios with time‐varying CMIP6 emissions over the 1997 to 2014 period (DeRepentigny et al., 2022; Fasullo et al., 2022; Heyblom et al., 2022; Rodgers et al., 2021). The largest set of these comparison simulations is the CESM2 Large Ensemble (CESM2‐LE; Figure 1a; Rodgers et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The largest set of these comparison simulations is the CESM2 Large Ensemble (CESM2‐LE; Figure 1a; Rodgers et al., 2021). Studies using the CESM2‐LE show that the sudden change in BB emissions variability in the CMIP6 late‐historical simulations leads to shifts in the climate, producing increases in simulated downwelling shortwave radiation and enhancing surface warming (Fasullo et al., 2022; also Figure 1b), increases in atmospheric water vapor and precipitation (Heyblom et al., 2022), and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss (DeRepentigny et al., 2022). These studies postulated that nonlinearities in the climate system's response to BB aerosols produced these climate effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variability in Biomass Burning Emissions Weakens Aerosol Forcing Due To Nonlinear Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions

Heyblom

Singh

Rasch

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Atmospheric aerosols are a critical component of the climate system, but the complex processes governing their production, deposition, and interactions with clouds are difficult to observe and model. Uncertainty in the aerosol forcing is one of the greatest challenges for understanding historical climate change and projecting near-future climate evolution (Forster et al., 2021;Kiehl, 2007).Previous research on aerosol radiative forcing has focused on the effect of secular change in aerosol emissions, with little consideration of the impact of shorter timescale variability in the emissions. For example, the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) historical and future simulations use biomass burning (BB) emissions estimates that are smooth temporally compared to real-world emissions, particularly on inter-and sub-annual time scales. Real-world BB emissions in the extratropics occur episodically and stochastically, and may depend on weather conditions (precipitation, drought, lightning) or human activity (agricultural burning, forest clearing, arson) (Lamarque et al., 2010;van der Werf et al., 2017).To incorporate more realistic aerosol emissions variability, the latest CMIP (sixth phase; CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) includes BB emissions estimates derived from satellite observations for historical simulations from 1997 to 2014 (Figure 1a; van Marle et al., 2017). Historical CMIP6 BB emissions in this time period have much higher temporal variability than those used in previous model intercomparison efforts (e.g., the CMIP5 historical simulations). However, the BB emissions used for CMIP6 prior to 1997 (before satellite measurement capability) are similar to the CMIP5 inventories, with weak temporal variability (Figure 1a black line; Lamarque et al., 2010; van Marle et al., 2017). Recent analyses in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; Danabasoglu et al., 2020) have estimated the climate effect of this change in BB emissions variability by comparing simulation scenarios

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“…This is largely due to canonical experimental designs, such as the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) 33 , where models are driven by total (AER and BMB) anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions. Although prior studies do not explicitly isolate the AMOC impacts due to AER versus BMB aerosols, some recent studies [34][35][36][37][38] have found that the relatively large interannual variability associated with BMB emissions (and their aerosols) can affect longer time scale (e.g., decadal) climate variability and its mean state. For example, an increase in BMB emissions variability from 1997-2014 (due to the inclusion of satellite data) led to cloud thinning, an increase in surface solar radiation and subsequent warming of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 34 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of industrial versus biomass burning aerosols on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Allen,

Vega,

Yao

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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The ocean’s major circulation system, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is slowing down. Such weakening is consistent with warming associated with increasing greenhouse gases, as well as with recent decreases in industrial aerosol pollution. The impact of biomass burning aerosols on the AMOC, however, remains unexplored. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble to quantify the impact of both aerosol types on the AMOC. Despite relatively small changes in North Atlantic biomass burning aerosols, significant AMOC evolution occurs, including weakening from 1920 to ~1970 followed by AMOC strengthening. These changes are largely out of phase relative to the corresponding AMOC evolution under industrial aerosols. AMOC responses are initiated by thermal changes in sea surface density flux due to altered shortwave radiation. An additional dynamical mechanism involving the North Atlantic sea-level pressure gradient is important under biomass-burning aerosols. AMOC-induced ocean salinity flux convergence acts as a positive feedback. Our results show that biomass-burning aerosols reinforce early 20th-century AMOC weakening associated with greenhouse gases and also partially mute industrial aerosol impacts on the AMOC. Recent increases in wildfires suggest biomass-burning aerosols may be an important driver of future AMOC variability.

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Increased Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions in CMIP6 Amplifies Hydrologic Cycle in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Cited by 12 publications

References 53 publications

Contribution of Surface Radiative Effects, Heat Fluxes and Their Interactions to Land Surface Temperature Variability

Contribution of Surface Radiative Effects, Heat Fluxes and Their Interactions to Land Surface Temperature Variability

Variability in Biomass Burning Emissions Weakens Aerosol Forcing Due To Nonlinear Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions

Impact of industrial versus biomass burning aerosols on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

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