Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise

Anderegg, Nanina; Slabbert, Mariette; Buthelezi, Kholi; Johnson, Leigh F.

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.006

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Our analysis identified and reported several baseline predictors such as the age of the oldest sex partner, participant's age at enrollment, earning a salary or not, years with a stable partner, income source, whether the sex partner has other partners, and frequency of sex in the last 30 days as significantly associated with HIV incidence. These findings align with those of other research studies (47)(48)(49)(50)(51)(52)(53)(54)(55).…”

Section: Figuresupporting

confidence: 92%

Investigating the effects of cytokine biomarkers on HIV incidence: a case study for individuals randomized to pre-exposure prophylaxis vs. control

Ogutu,

Mohammed,

Mwambi

2024

Front. Public Health

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IntroductionUnderstanding and identifying the immunological markers and clinical information linked with HIV acquisition is crucial for effectively implementing Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV acquisition. Prior analysis on HIV incidence outcomes have predominantly employed proportional hazards (PH) models, adjusting solely for baseline covariates. Therefore, models that integrate cytokine biomarkers, particularly as time-varying covariates, are sorely needed.MethodsWe built a simple model using the Cox PH to investigate the impact of specific cytokine profiles in predicting the overall HIV incidence. Further, Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare HIV incidence rates between the treatment and placebo groups while assessing the overall treatment effectiveness. Utilizing stepwise regression, we developed a series of Cox PH models to analyze 48 longitudinally measured cytokine profiles. We considered three kinds of effects in the cytokine profile measurements: average, difference, and time-dependent covariate. These effects were combined with baseline covariates to explore their influence on predictors of HIV incidence.ResultsComparing the predictive performance of the Cox PH models developed using the AIC metric, model 4 (Cox PH model with time-dependent cytokine) outperformed the others. The results indicated that the cytokines, interleukin (IL-2, IL-3, IL-5, IL-10, IL-16, IL-12P70, and IL-17 alpha), stem cell factor (SCF), beta nerve growth factor (B-NGF), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-A), interferon (IFN) alpha-2, serum stem cell growth factor (SCG)-beta, platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-BB, granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), and cutaneous T-cell-attracting chemokine (CTACK) were significantly associated with HIV incidence. Baseline predictors significantly associated with HIV incidence when considering cytokine effects included: age of oldest sex partner, age at enrollment, salary, years with a stable partner, sex partner having any other sex partner, husband's income, other income source, age at debut, years lived in Durban, and sex in the last 30 days.DiscussionOverall, the inclusion of cytokine effects enhanced the predictive performance of the models, and the PrEP group exhibited reduced HIV incidences compared to the placebo group.

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Section: Figuresupporting

confidence: 92%

Investigating the effects of cytokine biomarkers on HIV incidence: a case study for individuals randomized to pre-exposure prophylaxis vs. control

Ogutu,

Mohammed,

Mwambi

2024

Front. Public Health

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show abstract

“…Studies among women linked to sex worker focused programmes or clinics might have recruited women at lower risk of HIV acquisition, who might be older or have sold sex for longer, potentially missing younger women, those not identifying as selling sex, and those in the highest risk period immediately following sex work initiation. 98 Data from South Africa suggest that sex work dynamics are changing, with the mean age of sex workers and durations at-risk both increasing, 99 while young women who engage in sex work remain at highest incidence risk. 100 Different sampling and recruitment approaches are also likely to have identified different women for study inclusion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

HIV incidence among women engaging in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Jones,

Anderson,

Cust

et al. 2024

The Lancet Global Health

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Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise

Cited by 3 publications

References 47 publications

Investigating the effects of cytokine biomarkers on HIV incidence: a case study for individuals randomized to pre-exposure prophylaxis vs. control

Investigating the effects of cytokine biomarkers on HIV incidence: a case study for individuals randomized to pre-exposure prophylaxis vs. control

HIV incidence among women engaging in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Data_Sheet_2.pdf

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