Increasing bamboo dominance in southwestern Amazon forests following intensification of drought-mediated fires

Silva, Sonaira Souza da; Fearnside, Philip M.; Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro; Numata, Izaya; Melo, A. W. F. de; Ferreira, Evandro José Linhares; Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de; Santos, Ednéia Araújo dos; Dias, M.S.; Lima, Rodrigo Cunha de; Lima, Pedro Raimundo Ferreira de

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119139

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Liana forests are expected to expand with increasing aridity, disturbance regimes and CO 2 fertilization 90 . Guadua bamboo forests are common in the southwestern Amazon 92 , 93 . Similar to lianas, bamboos self-perpetuate by causing physical damage to trees and have been expanding over burnt forests in the region 92 .…”

Section: Three Alternative Ecosystem Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Guadua bamboo forests are common in the southwestern Amazon 92 , 93 . Similar to lianas, bamboos self-perpetuate by causing physical damage to trees and have been expanding over burnt forests in the region 92 . Degraded forests are usually dominated by native opportunistic species, and their increasing expansion over disturbed forests could affect Amazonian functioning and resilience in the future.…”

Section: Three Alternative Ecosystem Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Particular combinations of interactions (arrows show positive effects described in the literature) may form feedback loops 15 that propel the ecosystem through these trajectories. In the ‘degraded forest’ trajectory, feedbacks often involve competition between trees and other opportunistic plants 85 , 90 , 92 , as well as interactions between deforestation, fire and seed limitation 84 , 87 , 105 . At the landscape scale, secondary forests are more likely to be cleared than mature forests, thus keeping forests persistently young and landscapes fragmented 83 .…”

Section: Three Alternative Ecosystem Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Flores,

Montoya,

Sakschewski

et al. 2024

Nature

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The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

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Section: Three Alternative Ecosystem Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Three Alternative Ecosystem Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Three Alternative Ecosystem Trajectoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Flores,

Montoya,

Sakschewski

et al. 2024

Nature

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“…In addition, a prolonged drought combined with high winds could lead to forest fires ( Silva et al., 2021 ). For example, several forest fires broke out in the remnant of Mount Tai at the junction of Jinan and Tai’an in Shandong Province in 2011 ( http://www.chinanews.com/tp/hd/2011/04-19/33080.shtml ), resulting in the destruction of the forest, and the vegetation coverage in the following years was lower than that before the fire ( Figure 7 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage variation in mountainous and hilly areas in Central South of Shandong Province based on tree-ring

et al. 2023

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IntroductionIt is of great significance to understand the characteristics and influencing factors of vegetation coverage variation in the warm temperate zone. As a typical region of the warm temperate zone in eastern China, the mountainous and hilly region in central-south Shandong Province has fragile ecological environment and soil erosion problem. Studying on vegetation dynamics and its influencing factors in this region will help to better understand the relationship between climate change and vegetation cover change in the warm temperate zone of eastern China, and the influence of human activities on vegetation cover dynamics.MethodsBased on dendrochronology, a standard tree-ring width chronology was established in the mountainous and hilly region of central-south Shandong Province, and the vegetation coverage from 1905 to 2020 was reconstructed to reveal the dynamic change characteristics of vegetation cover in this region. Secondly, the influence of climate factors and human activities on the dynamic change of vegetation cover was discussed through correlation analysis and residual analysis.Results and discussionIn the reconstructed sequence, 23 years had high vegetation coverage and 15 years had low vegetation coverage. After low-pass filtering, the vegetation coverage of 1911–1913, 1945–1951, 1958–1962, 1994–1996, and 2007–2011 was relatively high, while the vegetation coverage of 1925–1927, 1936–1942, 2001–2003, and 2019–2020 was relatively low. Although precipitation determined the variation of vegetation coverage in this study area, the impacts of human activities on the change of vegetation coverage in the past decades cannot be ignored. With the development of social economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the vegetation coverage declined. Since the beginning of the 21st century, ecological projects such as Grain-for-Green have increased the vegetation coverage.

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“…Furthermore, the same authors report the aboveground biomass stocks have been estimated to range between 100 and 300 Mg ha −1 , harboring great diversity of tree and palm species with high ecological importance. However, with future climate scenarios indicating more frequent and extensive droughts, an increase in the use of fire for new deforestation may lead to a potential increase in bamboo density and a decrease in species diversity (Da Silva et al, 2021).…”

Section: Example: the Southwestern Amazonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework

Froese,

Andrino,

Giudice

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the “tipping matrix” and the “cross-impact matrix.” We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as “tipping cascades,” which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES.

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Increasing bamboo dominance in southwestern Amazon forests following intensification of drought-mediated fires

Cited by 9 publications

References 48 publications

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage variation in mountainous and hilly areas in Central South of Shandong Province based on tree-ring

Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework

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