Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition

Myers, Samuel S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Kloog, Itai; Huybers, Peter; Leakey, Andrew D. B.; Bloom, Arnold J.; Carlisle, Eli; Dietterich, Lee H.; Fitzgerald, Glenn J.; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Holbrook, N. Michele; Nelson, Randall L.; Ottman, Michael J.; Raboy, Victor; Sakai, Hidemitsu; Sartor, Karla; Schwartz, Joel; Seneweera, Saman; Tausz, Michael; Usui, Yasuhiro

doi:10.1038/nature13179

Cited by 1,170 publications

(893 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…The reduction in a broad range of nutritionally important minerals in soybean seeds as a result of 328 growth at eCO2 (Loladze, 2014, McGrath and Lobell, 2013, Myers et al, 2014 was generally 329 confirmed in the present study, and conversely, the increase in seed mineral concentrations by 330 growth at elevated temperature (at ambient CO2) was shown. In general, growth at eCO2 plus 331 elevated temperature restored seed yield and mineral concentrations to nearly those observed at 332 current ambient conditions, calling into question the predictive value of studies looking only at 333 eCO2 to identify threats to human nutrition.…”

supporting

confidence: 72%

“…Overall, the 58 patterns of mineral changes were similar between foliar and edible tissue with the exception that 59 K was reduced only in edible tissues (Loladze, 2014). The second study (Myers et al, 2014) 60 focused on C3 grains and legumes and reported that concentrations of Zn and Fe were decreased 61 from ~5 to 10% at eCO2. Both studies concluded that eCO2 may result in crops that are less 62 nutritious as a result of reduced mineral concentrations, which would have enormous 63…”

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confidence: 92%

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Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO₂ concentrations

Koehler

Bernacchi

Baxter

2018

Preprint

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2 Summary (244/250 words) 17Iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) deficiencies are a global human health problem that may worsen 18 by growth of crops at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2). However, climate change 19 will also involve higher temperature, but it is unclear how the combined effect of eCO2 and 20 higher temperature will affect the nutritional quality of food crops. To begin to address this 21 question, we grew soybean (Glycine max) in a Temperature by Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (T-22 FACE) experiment in 2014 and 2015 under ambient (400 µmol mol -1 ) and elevated (600 µmol 23 mol -1 ) CO2 concentration and under ambient and elevated temperatures (+2.7 °C day and +3.4 °C 24 at night). In our study, eCO2 significantly decreased Fe concentration in soybean seeds in both 25seasons (-8.7% and -7.7%) and Zn concentration in one season (-8.9%) while higher temperature 26 (at ambient CO2 concentration) had the opposite effect. The combination of eCO2 with elevated 27 temperature generally restored seed Fe and Zn concentrations to levels obtained under ambient 28 CO2 and temperature conditions, suggesting that the potential threat to human nutrition by 29 increasing CO2 concentration may not be realized. In general, seed Fe concentration was 30 negatively correlated with yield suggesting inherent limitations to increasing seed Fe. In 31 addition, we confirm our previous report that the concentration of seed storage products and 32 several minerals varies with node position at which the seeds developed. Overall, these results 33 demonstrate the complexity of predicting climate change effects on food security when various 34 environmental parameters change in an interactive manner. 35

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supporting

confidence: 72%

mentioning

confidence: 92%

Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO₂ concentrations

Koehler

Bernacchi

Baxter

2018

Preprint

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“…Empirical studies do suggest that 38 extremes of temperature and precipitation increase the relative risk of civil conflict 146 ; since the absolute 39 risk of civil conflict is highest in poorer countries, and since civil conflict reduces economic growth 147 In addition, a concurrent effect of this process is a reduction in the protein and nutrient content of 6 wheat, rice, maize, barley, potato, soybean and peas, meaning the contribution that yield makes to food 7 security per ton of crop harvested may decrease at higher CO 2 levels 53,148 . Regarding the role of heat 8 extremes in crop yield impacts, warming is projected to triple the exposure of crops to drought 149 , for 4° 9 C relative to preindustrial) and extreme heat 150 , for wheat and maize at 3.5° C warming.…”

Section: Limitations To Risk Judgments 36mentioning

confidence: 99%

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

et al. 2017

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The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in 1 relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC 2 assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature 3 change (GMT). We review the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent 4 IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and 5 identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary 6 climate change metrics to GMT and better account for possible changes in social and ecological 7 system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios 8 of future climatic and societal conditions. 9The RFC framework was developed in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) to inform discussions 10 relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 11Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic 12 interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" 13 diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy 14 decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts 1, 2 on 15 the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing 16 to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement 3 . Elaborations of the Burning Embers have 17 been used to represent climate impacts and risks at the regional level 4 and for specific systems (e.g., 18ocean systems 5 ). 19This article reviews the conceptual basis for the RFCs (Box 1) and offers an explanation of the reasoning 20 behind associated risk judgments that is complementary to, but goes beyond, the treatment in the IPCC 21Fifth Assessment Report 6 . We focus explicitly on the evidence base for transitions from one risk level to 22 the next, incorporate post-AR5 literature in those discussions, and offer thoughts about limitations of 23 the subjective judgments behind each RFC. We also improved the synthesis of RFC-related material 24 across AR5, and in turn provide both a clearer connection to evidence from AR5 that supports the RFC 25 judgments, as well as a comparison of the RFCs to similar approaches employing metrics other than 26 GMT for characterizing risk. Perhaps most importantly, we consider improvements in the framework, 27 particularly emphasizing the dynamic nature of exposure and vulnerability, two key components of risk 28 not sufficiently covered in the current approach. 29 TEXT BOX 1: Conceptual Basis 30The Reasons for Concern (RFCs) reported in AR5 are: 31 Types of risk included in each category are discussed in the next section. The categories share an 37 emphasis on going beyond changes in biophysical systems to possible consequences for society and 38...

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“…Although climate models differ in their specific predictions,8 it is generally agreed that near‐term sustained temperature increases will yield more extreme and variable weather, including extended droughts and flooding,9 which would adversely shift the dynamics of agriculture and disrupt global food supplies. Interestingly, meta‐analyses for a range of crop species have shown that future increases to atmospheric CO 2 will also impact the nutritional protein content of crops10 as well as minerals such as zinc and iron 10, 11, 12. Hence, to maintain or improve an individual's nutritional profile, it will remain important to make available additional varieties of nutrient‐rich foods, such as meat, dairy, fish, nutrient‐rich vegetables/legumes and fortified products, but in a more feasible manner for the environment than that of the current food and agriculture system.…”

Section: Farmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Healthy and sustainable diets for future generations

et al. 2018

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Global food systems will face unprecedented challenges in the coming years. They will need to meet the nutritional needs of a growing population and feed an expanding demand for proteins. This is against a backdrop of increasing environmental challenges (water resources, climate change, soil health) and the need to improve farming livelihoods. Collaborative efforts by a variety of stakeholders are needed to ensure that future generations have access to healthy and sustainable diets. Food will play an increasingly important role in the global discourse on health. These topics were explored during Nestlé's second international conference on ‘Planting Seeds for the Future of Food: The Agriculture, Nutrition and Sustainability Nexus’, which took place in July 2017. This article discusses some of the key issues from the perspective of three major stakeholder groups, namely farming/agriculture, the food industry and consumers. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

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Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition

Cited by 1,170 publications

References 37 publications

Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO₂ concentrations

Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO₂ concentrations

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

Healthy and sustainable diets for future generations

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Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition

Cited by 1,170 publications

References 37 publications

Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO2 concentrations

Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO2 concentrations

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

Healthy and sustainable diets for future generations

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Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO₂ concentrations

Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO₂ concentrations