“…The correlation between the standard chronology of C. deodara and drought during July-September, which extends from June of the previous year to September of the current year (figure 4), is consistent with previous studies on other conifer species in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region of Pakistan [27,32,36]. Studies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in China [50][51][52][53] and the central Himalaya [54,55] have also reported that the forest growth of conifers is sensitive to drought.…”
The Prolonged drought resulting from global warming is considered an important factor affecting the Asia's socioeconomic growth of West Asia, with a significant impact on the dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems. In such a scenario, Understanding future long-term drought (SPEI) changes is crucial for accurately forecasting regional drought shifts in the Hindukush region. In this study, a 517-year (1506-2022 CE) long tree-ring width chronology of the Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara D. Don) from the eastern Hindukush has been developed. The July-September SPEI has revealed a positive and significant relationship (r = 0.633, p < 0.001) with tree growth, which leads to SPEI reconstruction from AD 1626 in the Hindu Kush Region. Our reconstruction model has explained 40.01% of the climate variance during the instrumental period from AD 1965 to 2018. Fourteen wet periods (≥ 3 years) were observed before the instrumental period, specifically in C.E. 1629–1635, 1638–1658, 1666–1674, 1680–1701, 1715–1724, 1770–1776, 1794–1797, 1802–1810, 1822–1846, 1850–1857, 1872–1881, 1883–1890, 1906–1914, and 1921–1937. Similarly, twelve dry summer periods were also observed in the past 339 years, such as C.E. 1659–1665, 1675–1679, 1702–1714, 1725–1769, 1777–1793, 1798–1801, 1811–1821, 1847–1849, 1858–1871, 1891–1905, 1915–1920, and 1938–1963. Nevertheless, AD 1663 was individually the wettest (with a value of 2.13), while AD 1754 was the driest (-0.99) year. The spatial correlation analysis and its comparisons with Karakoram-Himalayan drought and precipitation reconstructions have convincingly confirmed the reliability of our SPEI reconstruction. Consequently, this reconstruction can effectively serve as a proxy for large-scale drought variability in the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan. Our findings strongly suggest the considerable dendrochronological potential for further climatological studies in the western Hindu Kush Mountains System.
“…The correlation between the standard chronology of C. deodara and drought during July-September, which extends from June of the previous year to September of the current year (figure 4), is consistent with previous studies on other conifer species in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region of Pakistan [27,32,36]. Studies on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in China [50][51][52][53] and the central Himalaya [54,55] have also reported that the forest growth of conifers is sensitive to drought.…”
The Prolonged drought resulting from global warming is considered an important factor affecting the Asia's socioeconomic growth of West Asia, with a significant impact on the dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems. In such a scenario, Understanding future long-term drought (SPEI) changes is crucial for accurately forecasting regional drought shifts in the Hindukush region. In this study, a 517-year (1506-2022 CE) long tree-ring width chronology of the Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara D. Don) from the eastern Hindukush has been developed. The July-September SPEI has revealed a positive and significant relationship (r = 0.633, p < 0.001) with tree growth, which leads to SPEI reconstruction from AD 1626 in the Hindu Kush Region. Our reconstruction model has explained 40.01% of the climate variance during the instrumental period from AD 1965 to 2018. Fourteen wet periods (≥ 3 years) were observed before the instrumental period, specifically in C.E. 1629–1635, 1638–1658, 1666–1674, 1680–1701, 1715–1724, 1770–1776, 1794–1797, 1802–1810, 1822–1846, 1850–1857, 1872–1881, 1883–1890, 1906–1914, and 1921–1937. Similarly, twelve dry summer periods were also observed in the past 339 years, such as C.E. 1659–1665, 1675–1679, 1702–1714, 1725–1769, 1777–1793, 1798–1801, 1811–1821, 1847–1849, 1858–1871, 1891–1905, 1915–1920, and 1938–1963. Nevertheless, AD 1663 was individually the wettest (with a value of 2.13), while AD 1754 was the driest (-0.99) year. The spatial correlation analysis and its comparisons with Karakoram-Himalayan drought and precipitation reconstructions have convincingly confirmed the reliability of our SPEI reconstruction. Consequently, this reconstruction can effectively serve as a proxy for large-scale drought variability in the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan. Our findings strongly suggest the considerable dendrochronological potential for further climatological studies in the western Hindu Kush Mountains System.
“…Larix griffithiana, Tsuga dumosa, Abies densa, Juniperus indica, Pinus wallichiana ), only a few have been used for the reconstruction of temperature (Aryal et al, 2020; Bhattacharyya and Chaudhary, 2003; Borgaonkar et al, 2018; Chaudhary and Bhattacharyya, 2000; Chaudhary et al, 1999; Gaire et al, 2023; Khandu et al, 2022; Krusic et al, 2015; Yadava et al, 2015) and precipitation (Khan et al, 2020; Sano et al, 2013; Shah, 2018; Singh et al, 2021; Yadav, 2011; Yadav et al, 2014) across the Himalaya (Figure 1). The same is the case for hydrological reconstructions such as streamflow (Cook et al, 2013; Gaire et al, 2022; Misra et al, 2015; Rao et al, 2020; Shah et al, 2013, 2014; Singh and Yadav, 2013). Figure 1 also shows that most tree-ring studies are available in the western and central Himalaya, whereas the eastern Himalaya has received less attention.…”
Section: Himalayan Dendrochronologymentioning
confidence: 83%
“…Unlike in the western Himalaya, the frequencies of high-flow and wet periods along with flood events have increased in the Central and Eastern Himalayas. This is likely due to long-term changes in climatic conditions, particularly changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon.Figure 4.Periods of prolonged low and high flow periods, dry and wet periods, and their relationship with the increasing frequencies of flood events across the Himalaya (Data source: flood events (Ballesteros-Cánovas et al, 2017, 2020; Rao et al, 2020); low flow and high flow periods (Gaire et al, 2022; Shah et al, 2014; Singh and Yadav, 2013); dry and wet periods (Gaire et al, 2017; Rao et al, 2020; Singh et al, 2006); cold and warm periods (Aryal et al, 2020; Borgaonkar et al, 2018; Singh et al, 2022). …”
Section: Himalayan Dendrochronologymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Periods of prolonged low and high flow periods, dry and wet periods, and their relationship with the increasing frequencies of flood events across the Himalaya (Data source: flood events (Ballesteros-Cánovas et al, 2017, 2020; Rao et al, 2020); low flow and high flow periods (Gaire et al, 2022; Shah et al, 2014; Singh and Yadav, 2013); dry and wet periods (Gaire et al, 2017; Rao et al, 2020; Singh et al, 2006); cold and warm periods (Aryal et al, 2020; Borgaonkar et al, 2018; Singh et al, 2022). …”
Section: Himalayan Dendrochronologymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…During recent decades, the frequency and magnitude of flood events in the Himalaya have been reported as increasing in parallel with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation including and a weakening of the summer monsoon under changing climate (Gaire et al, 2019, 2022; Panthi et al, 2017; Zhan et al, 2017). A number of dendrochronological studies are available (the majority in the western Himalaya) that have reconstructed paleofloods using PSI marks (e.g.…”
Recent developments in tree-ring research offer great potential for reconstructing past climate changes; determining the frequencies of natural hazards; and assessing the availability of freshwater resources over timescales that extend well into the pre-instrumental period. Here, we review the state of dendrochronological research in the Himalaya and outline future directions for tree-ring-based hydrological reconstructions in a region that has a pressing societal need to understand the causes and consequences of past, present and future changes in the hydrological cycle. We used ‘tree ring’ and ‘Himalaya’ as keywords to identify scholarly articles from the Web of Science that were published between 1994 and 2022. The resulting 173 publications were separated by their spatial coverage into the western, central and eastern Himalaya, as well as their scientific purpose (e.g. reconstructing growth-climate relationships, temperature, precipitation, streamflow, floods, droughts, etc.). Our analysis shows that dendrochronological research in the Himalaya primarily focused on understanding growth-climate relationships using annual tree-ring widths measurements obtained for coniferous species, and their application in climate reconstructions. Reconstructions of hydrological processes such as streamflows, and extremes such as glacial and landslide lake outburst floods, have received less attention. Recent advances in dendrochronology, including blue intensity (BI), quantitative wood anatomy (QWA), and tree-ring stable isotopes (TRSI) should be combined to improve the resolution and accuracy of hydrological reconstructions in all parts of the Himalaya. Such studies may allow us to better understand the effects of climate change and the Himalayan water resources for its lowland surroundings. They may also facilitate decision-making processes for mitigating the impacts of climate change on natural hazards, and for better managing water resources in the region.
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