Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy

Arthur, W. Brian

doi:10.3998/mpub.10029

Cited by 3,067 publications

(1,766 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Second, capital vintage effects have also been associated with technology lock-in (14), which may impede rapid reductions of carbon emissions. The lock-in hypothesis posits that incremental development of a firm's knowledge base over time produces standard operating procedures that can be barriers to the adoption of new technologies.…”

Section: System Boundaries and Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Emissions from U.S. Ethylene Production under Climate Change Policies

Rüth

Amato

Davíðsdóttir

2001

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energyssuch as carbon taxes or carbon permit systemssare relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capitalssuch as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedulessmay be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

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Section: System Boundaries and Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Emissions from U.S. Ethylene Production under Climate Change Policies

Rüth

Amato

Davíðsdóttir

2001

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…Differential generative entrenchment yields a robust evolutionary dynamics and many new consequences (B. Arthur 1994;. The key is neo-Darwinian: Larger mutations give more places for something to go wrong and so are exponentially less likely to be adaptive.…”

Section: Jamshid Tehranimentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a unified science of cultural evolution

2006

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We suggest that human culture exhibits key Darwinian evolutionary properties, and argue that the structure of a science of cultural evolution should share fundamental features with the structure of the science of biological evolution. This latter claim is tested by outlining the methods and approaches employed by the principal subdisciplines of evolutionary biology and assessing whether there is an existing or potential corresponding approach to the study of cultural evolution. Existing approaches within anthropology and archaeology demonstrate a good match with the macroevolutionary methods of systematics, paleobiology, and biogeography, whereas mathematical models derived from population genetics have been successfully developed to study cultural microevolution. Much potential exists for experimental simulations and field studies of cultural microevolution, where there are opportunities to borrow further methods and hypotheses from biology. Potential also exists for the cultural equivalent of molecular genetics in "social cognitive neuroscience," although many fundamental issues have yet to be resolved. It is argued that studying culture within a unifying evolutionary framework has the potential to integrate a number of separate disciplines within the social sciences.

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“…These include 'autonomy' (Winner, 1999) , 'lock in' (Cowan, 1990), 'path dependency' (Arthur, 1994), 'entrapment' (Walker, 2000), and 'obduracy' in 'socio-technical imaginaries' (Jasanoff & Kim, 2009). More recently, notions of 'incumbent strategies' have been developed, adopting political-economic perspectives to analyse the 'resistance' of incumbents to the diffusion of alternative technologies (Geels, 2014;Smink et al, 2013).…”

Section: Factors Bearing On Nuclear Discontinuity In Germany and Contmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Nuclear Power Trajectories in Germany and the UK: From 'Regimes' to 'Democracies' in Sociotechnical Transitions and Discontinuities

Johnstone

Stirling

2015

SSRN Journal

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SWPS 2015-18 ( June) DisclaimerThe works available here are the responsibility of the individual author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of other SPRU researchers. As matters of policy and practice, SPRU does not endorse individual research contributions. Guidelines for authorsPapers shall be submitted in pdf or Word format. They should contain a title, an abstract, and keywords. Papers should be submitted to one of the Editors, who will process them and send them to the appropriate Associate Editor. Two members of SPRU will be asked to provide a short written review within three weeks. The revised versions of the paper, together with a reply to the reviewers, should be sent to the Associate Editor, who will propose to the Editors its publication on the series. When submitting the authors should indicate if the paper has already undergone peer-reviewing, in which case the Associate Editors may decide to skip internal review process. AbstractThis paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a 'nuclear renaissance', promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe. Here, this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of 'sustainability transitions'. To this end, an 'abductive' approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are 'internal' and 'external' to the 'focal regime configuration' of nuclear power and associated 'challenger technologies' like renewables. It is 'internal' criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with 'external' criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. 'Internal' criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany -the reverse of what is occurring. 'External' criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics -especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader 'qualities of democracy'. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes 'democracy', a rich political science literature on t...

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Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy

Cited by 3,067 publications

References 36 publications

Carbon Emissions from U.S. Ethylene Production under Climate Change Policies

Carbon Emissions from U.S. Ethylene Production under Climate Change Policies

Towards a unified science of cultural evolution

Comparing Nuclear Power Trajectories in Germany and the UK: From 'Regimes' to 'Democracies' in Sociotechnical Transitions and Discontinuities

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