Increasing risk from landfalling tropical cyclone-heatwave compound events to coastal and inland China

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and heatwaves are amongst the most deadly and costly natural hazards. Despite considerable advances in understanding each of them, their occurrences in rapid sequence (e.g., in a week) that introduce disproportionately large impacts to infrastructure and human health have received far less attention. Based on dynamical downscaling simulations, we project that currently rare landfalling TC-heatwave compound events would be five to ten times more frequent in coastal Southeast China, and migrate northward and westward to the intact interior. It is the substantial increase in heatwaves that contributes most to the projected increase in frequency and novel emergence of compound events. There would be higher fraction of severer compound events composed of either intense TCs (in the top 10-percent historically) or exceptional heatwaves (above the historical 99.9th percentile), with coastal Southeast China even bracing for out-of-ordinary combinations of the two. On top of the unprecedented frequency, intensity and land exposure, future emergence of unseasonal compound events in South and Southeast China would further overwhelm local adaptive capacities.

A Global Multi-Source Tropical Cyclone Precipitation (MSTCP) Dataset

“…Heavy rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) causes devastating impacts such as loss of life, damages on property, infrastructure and supply chains 1 – 3 . These flood-related hazards from TCP are exacerbated by local vulnerabilities 4 and by the occurrence of other extreme weather events, also known as compound events 5 . TCP is not only a hazard but also an important contributor to total rainfall, and therefore water supply, since TCs can account for more than 35% of the annual rainfall over Australia, Taiwan, the Philippines and Mexico 6 , 7 .…”

Towards carbon-neutral sustainable development of China

“…The proportion of such compound heatwaves to all heatwave occurrences would also rise, with an increase in population exposure over the entire nation by 16 times under SSP585. Due to the significant increase in heatwaves by the late 21st Century, the currently infrequent landfallcausing tropical cyclone-heatwave compound events would become 5-10 times more frequent in coastal Southeast China under the medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) [7].…”

Future changes in intense tropical cyclone hazards in the Pearl River Delta region: An air-wave-ocean coupled model study

“…Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) are intense weather systems that can cause a range of coastal hazards, including storm surges and waves, coastal erosion, wind induced damage, rainstorms, and secondary hazards like landslides and inland ooding (Tran et al 2022, Wu et al 2022). The impact of landfalling TCs can vary depending on the severity and location of the storm, as well as the vulnerability of the affected communities (Wang et The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, with its long and meandering coastline and well-developed economy, is highly vulnerable to TC-caused coastal disasters (Chan 2008, Chen et al 2020.…”