Increasing Synchrony of Annual River‐Flood Peaks and Growing Season in Europe

Balke, Thorsten

doi:10.1029/2019gl084612

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…In addition, we did not consider variability in dispersal windows across years and assumed that plants can colonise bare substrates every year. However, the model could be used as exploratory tool to shed light on the relationship between river hydromorphology and plant traits, especially important in conjunction with alteration of the frequency and magnitude of floods during vegetation growth periods 3 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In turn, hydromorphological processes not only provide essential resources for plant growth, but also control plant survival trough erosion and deposition of the riverbed during floods 1 . In the current climate scenario, where seasonal flow regime is expected to change 2 , it is of utmost importance to predict how riparian vegetation will respond to altered disturbance regimes and to which extent feedbacks between vegetation and river hydromorphology will be affected 3 . However, while the need for quantitative tools able to inform river managers is mounting 4 , basic understanding of these feedbacks remains at an early stage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A model study of the combined effect of above and below ground plant traits on the ecomorphodynamics of gravel bars

Caponi

Vetsch

Siviglia

2020

Sci Rep

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Both above- and below-ground plant traits are known to modulate feedbacks between vegetation and river morphodynamic processes. However, how they collectively influence vegetation establishment on gravel bars remains less clear. Here we develop a numerical model that couples above- and below-ground vegetation dynamics with hydromorphological processes. The model dynamically links plant growth rate to water table fluctuations and includes plant mortality by uprooting and burial. We considered a realistic hydrological regime and used the model to simulate the coevolution of alternate gravel bars and vegetation that displays trade-offs in investment of above- and below-ground biomass. We found that a balanced plant growth above- and below-ground facilitates vegetation to establish on steady, stable bars, because it allows plants to develop traits that maximise growth performance during low flow periods and thus survival during floods. Regardless of the growth strategy, vegetation could not establish on migrating bars because of large plant loss by uprooting during floods. These findings add on previous studies suggesting that morphodynamic processes play a key role on determining plant trait distributions and highlight the importance of including the dynamics of both above- and below-ground plant traits for predicting shifts between bare and vegetated states in river bars.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model study of the combined effect of above and below ground plant traits on the ecomorphodynamics of gravel bars

Caponi

Vetsch

Siviglia

2020

Sci Rep

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“…Thus, these mismatches may interfere with key processes of vegetation development, such as dispersal, germination, growth and survival, and reproduction. Abiotic shifts may for example concern resource availability (Perry et al, 2020) or hydrological processes (Stella et al, 2006;Balke and Nilsson, 2019). Because different species are affected in different ways, riparian vegetation composition is likely to change in the future.…”

Section: The Climate Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because different species are affected in different ways, riparian vegetation composition is likely to change in the future. Although changes can be predicted for some species (e.g., Balke and Nilsson, 2019;Perry et al, 2020), the effects of extreme events, interactions between species, large local variation and interactions with other pressures make it difficult to predict what future riparian zones will look like, but decreased taxonomic and functional diversity are to be expected (Nilsson et al, 2013;Baattrup-Pedersen et al, 2018).…”

Section: The Climate Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

Pressures on Boreal Riparian Vegetation: A Literature Review

2022

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Riparian zones are species-rich and functionally important ecotones that sustain physical, chemical and ecological balance of ecosystems. While scientific, governmental and public attention for riparian zones has increased over the past decades, knowledge on the effects of the majority of anthropogenic disturbances is still lacking. Given the increasing expansion and intensity of these disturbances, the need to understand simultaneously occurring pressures grows. We have conducted a literature review on the potential effects of anthropogenic pressures on boreal riparian zones and the main processes that shape their vegetation composition. We visualised the observed and potential consequences of flow regulation for hydropower generation, flow regulation through channelisation, the climate crisis, forestry, land use change and non-native species in a conceptual model. The model shows how these pressures change different aspects of the flow regime and plant habitats, and we describe how these changes affect the extent of the riparian zone and dispersal, germination, growth and competition of plants. Main consequences of the pressures we studied are the decrease of the extent of the riparian zone and a poorer state of the area that remains. This already results in a loss of riparian plant species and riparian functionality, and thus also threatens aquatic systems and the organisms that depend on them. We also found that the impact of a pressure does not linearly reflect its degree of ubiquity and the scale on which it operates. Hydropower and the climate crisis stand out as major threats to boreal riparian zones and will continue to be so if no appropriate measures are taken. Other pressures, such as forestry and different types of land uses, can have severe effects but have more local and regional consequences. Many pressures, such as non-native species and the climate crisis, interact with each other and can limit or, more often, amplify each other’s effects. However, we found that there are very few studies that describe the effects of simultaneously occurring and, thus, potentially interacting pressures. While our model shows where they may interact, the extent of the interactions thus remains largely unknown.

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“…The autumn and winter flood are significantly increasing due to a large positive change in rainfall intensity and frequent during the autumn and winter seasons. In contrast, the decline in peak floods are due to decreasing future precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration (Coulibaly et al 2020;Thober et al 2018;Balke and Nilsson 2019;Blöschl et al 2019). The understanding of catchment-scale flood hazard projections requires a chain of linked concepts and comprehensive framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models

Meresa

Tischbein

Mekonnen³

2022

Nat Hazards

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Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy and intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management and flood risk management. Significant changes in air temperature, precipitation, and humidity are expected in future due to climate change. The influence of climate change on flood hazards is subject to considerable uncertainty that comes from the climate model discrepancies, climate bias correction methods, flood frequency distribution, and hydrological model parameters. These factors play a crucial role in flood risk planning and extreme event management. With the advent of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, flood managers and water resource planners are interested to know how changes in catchment flood risk are expected to alter relative to previous assessments. We examine catchment-based projected changes in flood quantiles and extreme high flow events for Awash catchments. Conceptual hydrological models (HBV, SMART, NAM and HYMOD), three downscaling techniques (EQM, DQM, and SQF), and an ensemble of hydrological parameter sets were used to examine changes in peak flood magnitude and frequency under climate change in the mid and end of the century. The result shows that projected annual extreme precipitation and flood quantiles could increase substantially in the next several decades in the selected catchments. The associated uncertainty in future flood hazards was quantified using aggregated variance decomposition and confirms that climate change is the dominant factor in Akaki (C2) and Awash Hombole (C5) catchments, whereas in Awash Bello (C4) and Kela (C3) catchments bias correction types is dominate, and Awash Kuntura (C1) both climate models and bias correction methods are essential factors. For the peak flow quantiles, climate models and hydrologic models are two main sources of uncertainty (31% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, the role of hydrological parameters to the aggregated uncertainty of changes in peak flow hazard variable is relatively small (5%), whereas the flood frequency contribution is much higher than the hydrologic model parameters. These results provide useful knowledge for policy-relevant flood indices, water resources and flood risk control and for studies related to uncertainty associated with peak flood magnitude and frequency.

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Increasing Synchrony of Annual River‐Flood Peaks and Growing Season in Europe

Cited by 7 publications

References 44 publications

A model study of the combined effect of above and below ground plant traits on the ecomorphodynamics of gravel bars

A model study of the combined effect of above and below ground plant traits on the ecomorphodynamics of gravel bars

Pressures on Boreal Riparian Vegetation: A Literature Review

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models

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