Abstract. Northern peatlands have been a large C sink during the Holocene,
but whether they will keep being a C sink under future climate change is
uncertain. This study simulates the responses of northern peatlands to
future climate until 2300 with a Peatland version Terrestrial Ecosystem
Model (PTEM). The simulations are driven with two sets of CMIP5 climate data
(IPSL-CM5A-LR and bcc-csm1-1) under three warming scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and
8.5). Peatland area expansion, shrinkage, and C accumulation and
decomposition are modeled. In the 21st century, northern peatlands are
projected to be a C source of 1.2–13.3 Pg C under all climate scenarios
except for RCP 2.6 of bcc-csm1-1 (a sink of 0.8 Pg C). During 2100–2300,
northern peatlands under all scenarios are a C source under IPSL-CM5A-LR
scenarios, being larger sources than bcc-csm1-1 scenarios (5.9–118.3 vs.
0.7–87.6 Pg C). C sources are attributed to (1) the peatland water table depth
(WTD) becoming deeper and permafrost thaw increasing decomposition rate; (2) net primary production (NPP) not increasing much as climate warms because
peat drying suppresses net N mineralization; and (3) as WTD deepens,
peatlands switching from moss–herbaceous dominated to moss–woody dominated,
while woody plants require more N for productivity. Under IPSL-CM5A-LR
scenarios, northern peatlands remain as a C sink until the pan-Arctic annual
temperature reaches −2.6 to −2.89 ∘C, while this threshold is −2.09
to −2.35 ∘C under bcc-csm1-1 scenarios. This study predicts a
northern peatland sink-to-source shift in around 2050, earlier than previous
estimates of after 2100, and emphasizes the vulnerability of northern
peatlands to climate change.