“…Encouraging smallholders to shift to outgrower schemes of high-value crops may increase their income and may improve their economic welfare, but these arrangements have to be analysed by sensitive and in-depth evaluations. In other words, high-value crops may not necessarily translate into high farm profits (Tinsely, 2010) because of potential agricultural risks that may result in high variability of returns for farmers (Glover, 1987;Deininger & Olinto, 2000;Ponte, 2001). Langmead (2005) observed that the variability in rainfall, prices, yields and contracts is important to the sustainability of the paprika value chain in Zambia, but he did not quantitatively show how these risks could affect the viability of smallholder farmers and other players in the value chain.…”