2020
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-697-2020
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Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Abstract: Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 ∘C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate C… Show more

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Cited by 36 publications
(26 citation statements)
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“…d Same as c but for probability for an extreme hot year to occur instead of median warming. countries, to pursue more stringent mitigation efforts, which are urgently needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals 26,30 . Hence, the presented approach has the potential to support all countries in making evidence-based emission reduction decisions while accounting for different responsibility perspectives.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…d Same as c but for probability for an extreme hot year to occur instead of median warming. countries, to pursue more stringent mitigation efforts, which are urgently needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals 26,30 . Hence, the presented approach has the potential to support all countries in making evidence-based emission reduction decisions while accounting for different responsibility perspectives.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The Paris Climate Agreement is an example of how this process plays out: the Parties to the Agreement widely understood that the ambitions and concessions made by nation‐states at the international negotiation table are insufficient to address assessment targets based on physical changes recorded by science that is 5 years or older (e.g., Roelfsema et al, 2020). Promises of “ramping‐up” ambition under the Paris Agreement architecture signal the incremental character of climate policy‐making—a process found to be lacking even when considering multiple collective improvement scenarios (Geiges et al, 2020).…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Commitments by all Parties to raise the ambition of their NDCs in this current five‐year cycle are needed to narrow the existing emissions gap and reduce future dependence on levels of CDR that may prove difficult or impossible to scale up in the necessary timeframe. Only if Parties bring forward new and updated NDCs that are substantially more ambitious in the reductions they deliver for 2030, will reliance on CDR be reduced to a scale that may be economically feasible and avoid jeopardizing sustainable development (Geiges et al, 2020; Mace et al, forthcoming 2021). The adoption of economy‐wide NDCs by a larger number of developing country Parties would facilitate consideration of the widest possible array of mitigation initiatives, CDR opportunities and incentives in delivering these NDCs.…”
Section: What Governance Gaps and Challenges Should Be Addressed As A Matter Of Priority?mentioning
confidence: 99%