Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Infections in India

Patrikar, Seema; Kotwal, Atul; Bhatti, V.K.; Banerjee, Amitav; Chatterjee, Kabita; Kunte, Renuka; Tambe, Murlidhar

doi:10.1177/1010539520956427

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Tan et al (2020) drew similar conclusions using data from 164 cases in Singapore, and the mean incubation period estimate was 5.5 (95% CI: 5.2-5.9) days. Patrikar et al (2020) estimated the mean incubation period was 6.9 (95%CI: 6.1-7.8) days using data from 268 cases in India. The incubation period determined by the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Centers for Disease Control (ECDC), and Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (eighth edition) ranges from 0 to 14.0 days, 2.0--14.0 days, and 1.0-14.0 days, respectively (http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/fkdt/list_gzbd_3.shtml).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control

Huang¹,

Li²,

Dai

et al. 2021

International Journal of Environmental Health Research

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been causing serious disasters to mankind. The incubation period is a key parameter for epidemic control and also an important basis for epidemic prediction, but its distribution law remains unclear. This paper analyzed the epidemiological information of 787 confirmed non-Wuhan resident cases, and systematically studied the characteristics of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the intervalcensored data estimation method. The results show that the incubation period of COVID-19 approximately conforms to the Gamma distribution with a mean value of 7.8 (95%CI:7.4-8.5) days and a median value of 7.0 (95%CI:6.7-7.3) days. The incubation period was positively correlated with age and negatively correlated with disease severity. Female cases presented a slightly higher incubation period than that of males. The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms within 14 days was 91.6%. These results are of great significance to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control

Huang¹,

Li²,

Dai

et al. 2021

International Journal of Environmental Health Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Tan et al drew similar conclusions using data from 164 cases in Singapore, and the mean incubation period estimate was 5.5 (95% CI: 5.2-5.9) days [10]. Patrikar et al estimated the mean incubation period was 6.9 (95%CI: 6.1-7.8) days using data from 268 cases in India [11]. The incubation period determined by the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Centers for Disease Control (ECDC), and Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (eighth edition) ranges from 0-14.0 days, 2.0-14.0 days, and 1.0-14.0 days, respectively.…”

Section: Backgroundsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019: New Implications for Intervention and Control

Li¹,

Dai

TIE³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic raging around the world has caused serious disasters to mankind. The incubation period is a key parameter for epidemic control and also an important basis for epidemic prediction, but its distribution law remain unclear. Methods: The incubation period T was described by the accelerated failure time models, and the principle of interval-censored data processing and estimation methods were used. Statistical analysis were performed on R-4.0.2 software using “coarseDataTools 0.6-5” package to optimize the parameters to be estimated and calculate the confidence interval. The optimization method used when solving the maximum likelihood function is the simplex method. We used bootstrap re-sampling procedures with 1000 iterations to estimate the confidence interval. Results: Here we analyzed the epidemiological information of 787 confirmed non-Wuhan resident cases, and systematically studied the characteristics of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the interval-censored data estimation method. Through the statistical analysis of the overall and 7 types of sub-group samples, it was concluded that the incubation period of COVID-19 approximately conformed to the Gamma distribution with a mean value of 7.8 (95%CI: 7.4-8.5) days and a median value of 7.0 (95%CI: 6.7-7.3) days. Conclusions: The incubation period was positively correlated with age and negatively correlated with disease severity. Female cases presented a slightly higher incubation period than that of males. The incubation period of cases with travel history to Hubei and multiple exposures was shorter. The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms within 14 days was 91.6%. These results are of great significance to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“…The incubation period is averagely longer than the evidence from (sub)tropical countries, 6.93 days for India [18] and 5-6 days for Indonesia [19]. This might be due to the limitation we chose arrival date as the beginning of the incubation period, which could overrepresent those who got infected at the later period of their staying in Wuhan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining geographical disparities in the incubation period of the COVID-19 infected cases in Shenzhen and Hefei, China

Zhou

Guo

Luo

et al. 2021

Environ Health Prev Med

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Background Current studies on the COVID-19 depicted a general incubation period distribution and did not examine whether the incubation period distribution varies across patients living in different geographical locations with varying environmental attributes. Profiling the incubation distributions geographically help to determine the appropriate quarantine duration for different regions. Methods This retrospective study mainly applied big data analytics and methodology, using the publicly accessible clinical report for patients (n = 543) confirmed as infected in Shenzhen and Hefei, China. Based on 217 patients on whom the incubation period could be identified by the epidemiological method. Statistical and econometric methods were employed to investigate how the incubation distributions varied between infected cases reported in Shenzhen and Hefei. Results The median incubation period of the COVID-19 for all the 217 infected patients was 8 days (95% CI 7 to 9), while median values were 9 days in Shenzhen and 4 days in Hefei. The incubation period probably has an inverse U-shaped association with the meteorological temperature. The warmer condition in the winter of Shenzhen, average environmental temperature between 10 °C to 15 °C, may decrease viral virulence and result in more extended incubation periods. Conclusion Case studies of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shenzhen and Hefei indicated that the incubation period of COVID-19 had exhibited evident geographical disparities, although the pathological causality between meteorological conditions and incubation period deserves further investigation. Methodologies based on big data released by local public health authorities are applicable for identifying incubation period and relevant epidemiological research.

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Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Infections in India

Cited by 18 publications

References 7 publications

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control

Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019: New Implications for Intervention and Control

Examining geographical disparities in the incubation period of the COVID-19 infected cases in Shenzhen and Hefei, China

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