Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in India

Abstract

Novel coronavirus (COVID 19) rapidly spread from China to other parts of the world. Knowledge of incubation period and reproduction number is important in controlling any epidemic. The distribution of these parameters helps estimate the epidemic size and transmission potential of the disease. We estimated incubation period and reproduction number of COVID 19 for India utilizing data reported by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India (GOI) and data in public domain. The mean incubation period seems to be larger at 6.93 (SD=5.87, 95% CI: 6.11, 7.75). and 95th percentile estimate for best fit normal distribution is 17.8 days. Weibull distribution, the best fit for the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI=2.34, 2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI=1.3 , 1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36 to 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6 respectively.

Cross-Validation Comparison of COVID-19 Forecast Models

“…Since that day, we are observing rapid increases [2][3][4] of cases that made authorities give daily government communication to update the information of the day before. In this context, one of the main issues is to know the future number of cases [5] with the least possible bias [6], to create adaptative tools [7], to determine the reproduction number [8][9][10][11][12], to check Recovery Time Period [13], or other parameters to define appropriate policies to control COVID-19 spread. Thus, it is easy to notice that numerous papers [14][15][16][17][18] have proposed different forecast models of COVID-19 using univariate or multivariate time series modeling.…”

Time-dependent dynamic transmission potential and instantaneous reproduction number of COVID-19 pandemic in India

“…Calculation of reproduction numbers for Indian context previously also have documented value of 2.6 (95% CI=2.34, 2.86) in the initial stages and 1.57 (95% CI=1.3, 1.84) for the post lockdown period. 10…”

Handling and treatment strategies of biomedical wastes and biosolids contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 in waste environment

“…This period varies depending upon the virus encountered. For example, SARS-CoV-1 has an incubation period of 2–8 days, 31 MERS-CoV for 2–15 days, 30 SARS-CoV-2 approximately for 1–19 days, 31 and Ebola virus for 4–10 days. 32 SARS-CoV-1 showed crossed species transmission from bats to palm civets in the live animal trading market in China, 33 whereas MERS-CoV is believed to be transferred cross-species 30 years ago in camels.…”