Incumbency advantage and candidate characteristics in open-list proportional representation systems: Evidence from Indonesia

Dettman, Sebastian; Pepinsky, Thomas B.; Pierskalla, Jan H.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2017.06.002

Cited by 34 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The finding that the incumbency (dis-)advantage varies substantially across countries with similar open-list PR systems implies that differences in the electoral systems are certainly not the sole explanation for the observed variation in incumbency advantage. This is in contrast with previous work, which has argued that the election system is a key moderator of the incumbency advantage (Redmond and Regan 2015;Ariga 2015;Dettman et al 2017). We discuss the substantive implications of this finding in the conclusion.…”

contrasting

confidence: 94%

How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

Magalhaes¹,

Hangartner²,

Hirvonen³

et al. 2020

SSRN Journal

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Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used in the social sciences to estimate causal effects from observational data. Scholars can choose from a range of methods that implement different RDD estimators, but there is a paucity of research on the performance of these different estimators in recovering experimental benchmarks. Leveraging exact ties in local elections in Colombia and Finland, which are resolved by random coin toss, we find that RDD estimation using biascorrection and robust inference (CCT) performs better in replicating experimental estimates of the individual incumbency advantage than local linear regression with conventional inference (LLR). We assess the generalizability of our results by estimating incumbency effects across different subsamples, and in other countries. We find that CCT consistently comes closer to the experimental benchmark, produces smaller estimates than LLR, and that incumbency effects are highly heterogeneous, both in magnitude and sign, across countries with similar openlist PR systems.

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contrasting

confidence: 94%

How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

Magalhaes¹,

Hangartner²,

Hirvonen³

et al. 2020

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Many scholars highlight the importance of the ballot position effect because electoral success is heavily influenced by name order on the list (e.g., Jankowski 2016; Lutz 2010; van Erkel and Thijssen 2016). In fact, research on Indonesian elections demonstrates the crucial aspect of women being nominated as candidate number one (e.g., Dettman, Pepinsky, and Pierskalla 2017; Shair-Rosenfield 2012; Siregar 2006; Soetjipto and Adelina 2012). For every additional lower rank in the nomination list in the 2014 elections, the odds of winning for women is reduced by 63.5% and lower ballot list position creates a bigger disadvantage for women than men (Prihatini 2019a).…”

Section: List Positions and Witness Feesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Islam, Parties, and Women's Political Nomination in Indonesia

Prihatini

2019

Pol & Gen

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This article responds to earlier research on the role of Islam as a barrier to women's political nominations by assessing and comparing parties’ efforts to meet institutionally required gender quotas in Indonesia. With the provision of 30% candidate gender quotas implemented since the 2004 elections, how have parties responded? Do Islamist and pluralist parties differ systematically in this regard? More specifically, does religious ideology influence how parties go about meeting quotas, recruiting female candidates, and getting them elected? Or do all parties face the same challenges when it comes to getting women into parliament? Drawing on a unique dataset collected from 2004 to 2019 legislative elections and in-depth interviews with central party officers, faction leaders, and members of parliament, this article investigates these questions. The results indicate that Islamic ideology plays no obvious role in limiting female participation in legislative elections; Islamist and pluralist parties are equally good at achieving the percentage quotas of female nominees. Both groups are also similarly poor at putting female candidates first on the party lists. Indonesia's open-list proportional representation (PR) system is prohibitively expensive, and this hurts women candidates more than it does male candidates because women generally have less access to the capital necessary to purchase the top position on party lists.

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“…Banyak literatur tentang pemilu di Indonesia, seperti Fukuoka, et al (2014) serta Dettman, et al (2017), mendiskusikan tentang DPR dengan kekuatan partai politiknya. Namun, masih sedikit yang membicarakan DPD.…”

Section: Hasil Dan Pembahasanunclassified

Analisis Dana Kampanye Calon Terpilih Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (DPD) pada Pemilu Serentak 2019

Mubtadi

Arifin

2020

akunsika

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This article wants to answer about how the amount and nominal budget of elected DPD candidates can be utilized for the effort to win seats for each elected candidate. This study takes a sample of all members of the DPD elected from the existing participation of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The type of data taken in the form of secondary data downloaded from the official KPU website consists of a Report on the Revenue and Expenditure of Campaign Funds. Based on the results of this study, there are two interesting things related to the funding of the DPD in the 2019 Concurrent Elections ago. First, there is no strong relationship when the campaign budget is large. The pair of elected DPD candidates can win seats at a relatively small campaign cost. Second, the amount and amount of campaign costs incurred by prospective DPD members varies. The campaign expenses spent by Adilla Azis from East Java amounted to IDR 75,000. Meanwhile, Jimly As-Shiddiqie from DKI Jakarta spent the largest cost of IDR 1,908,605,402. The average selected candidate issues an average price range of IDR 400 million with an average cost/vote of IDR 3,500.

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Incumbency advantage and candidate characteristics in open-list proportional representation systems: Evidence from Indonesia

Cited by 34 publications

References 22 publications

How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

Islam, Parties, and Women's Political Nomination in Indonesia

Analisis Dana Kampanye Calon Terpilih Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (DPD) pada Pemilu Serentak 2019

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