Independence of Future Changes of River Runoff in Europe from the Pathway to Global Warming

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Dottori, Francesco; Cammalleri, Carmelo; Bisselink, Berny; Roo, Ad de; Feyen, Luc

doi:10.3390/cli8020022

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…CC BY 4.0 License. (Mentaschi et al, 2020). It should be noted that only one model reaches 3 K warming for RCP4.5, hence the model ensemble is composed by a total of 22 members for the 1.5 and K GWLs and only 12 members for the 3 K GWL.…”

Section: Climate Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cammalleri¹,

Naumann²,

Mentaschi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. Since many societal impacts from a lack of water happen under drought conditions, it is important to understand how droughts may develop with climate change. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels (GWL of 1.5, 2 and 3 K above preindustrial temperature). We employ a low-flow index derived from river discharge simulations of a spatially-distributed physically-based hydrological and water use model, which was forced with a large ensemble of regional climate model projections under a high emissions (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) pathway. Different traits of drought, including severity, duration and frequency, were investigated. The projected changes in these treats identify four main sub-regions in Europe that are characterized by somehow homogeneous and distinct behaviours with a clear southwest/northeast contrast. The Mediterranean and Boreal sub-regions of Europe show strong, but opposite, changes at all three GWLs, with the former area mostly interested by stronger droughts (with larger differences at 3 K) while the latter sees a reduction in droughts. In the Atlantic and Continental sub-regions the changes are less marked and characterized by a larger uncertainty, especially at the 1.5 and 2 K GWLs. Combining the projections in drought hazard with population and agricultural information shows that with 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 million ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.

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Section: Climate Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cammalleri¹,

Naumann²,

Mentaschi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…The hydroclimatic forcing data are generated on the basis of projected changes in flood frequency at the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The data stem from the European Union's Joint Research Center and were computed by an ensemble of coupled regional climate and hydrological models (Mentaschi et al., 2020). The socioeconomic forcing data is derived from an Eurostat projection of population growth (Eurostat, 2021) and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo projection of GDP per capita for Dresden (Steinhausen et al., 2022).…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Spatial data on the current flood protection in Dresden are available at the open data portal of the city of Dresden (City of Dresden, 2018). The projections of flood discharge change belong to the Joint Research Centre and were shared with the authors upon request (Mentaschi et al., 2020).…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Flood Risk Dynamics for Effective Long‐Term Adaptation

Schoppa,

Barendrecht,

Paprotny

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Flood losses have steadily increased in the past and are expected to grow even further owing to climate and socioeconomic change. The reduction of flood vulnerability, for example, through adaptation, plays a key role in the mitigation of future flood risk. However, lacking knowledge about vulnerability dynamics, which arise from the interaction between floods and the ensuing response by society, limits the scope of current risk projections. We present a socio‐hydrological method for flood risk assessment that simulates the interaction between society and flooding continuously, including changes in vulnerability through collective (structural) and private (non structural) measures. Our probabilistic approach quantifies uncertainties and exploits empirical data to chart risk dynamics including how society copes with flooding. In a case study for the commercial sector in Dresden, Germany, we show that increased adaptation is necessary to counteract the expected four‐fold growth in flood risk due to transient hydroclimatic and socioeconomic boundary conditions. We further use our holistic approach to identify solutions for effective long‐term adaptation, demonstrating that integrated adaptation strategies (i.e., combined structural and non structural measures) can reduce the average risk by up to 60% at the study site. Ultimately, our case study highlights the benefit of the model for robust flood risk assessment as it can capture unintended, adverse feedbacks of adaptation measures such as the levee effect. Consequently, our socio‐hydrological method contributes to a more systemic and reliable flood risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning by exploring the possible system evolutions comprehensively including unlikely futures.

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“…After the ratification of the agreement at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (COP-21) to limit warming to 1.5 °C, the number of studies assessing different global warming levels (GWLs) in regional climates has increased (Egbebiyi et al 2020 ; Mentaschi et al 2020 ; Arnell et al 2019 ; Mbaye et al 2019 ; Nikulin et al 2018 ; Greve et al 2018 ; Wartenburger et al 2017 ; Dequé et al 2016). Recently, a global commitment to accelerate climate action, and thus attempt to meet the Paris agreement target, was signed at COP-26 in Glasgow (UNEP 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios

et al. 2023

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This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in the South of the country. The results here presented can contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies aimed at ensuring Brazil’s water security towards climate change. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1.

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Independence of Future Changes of River Runoff in Europe from the Pathway to Global Warming

Cited by 15 publications

References 68 publications

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Projecting Flood Risk Dynamics for Effective Long‐Term Adaptation

Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios

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