India–Russia Relations after Ukraine

Abstract

India and Russia have enjoyed a strong relationship since the collapse of the Soviet Union, partially as a legacy of the Indo–Soviet partnership during the Cold War. But how will this invasion impact future relations between New Delhi and Moscow? We argue that the war will likely harm this relationship over the long term, although some scenarios might minimize this harm. Western sanctions and Russian material losses in the war will make it difficult for Russia to fulfill Indian arms orders, especially if the sanctions regime remains in place for several years, forcing India to turn to other sources of weapons, including the United States. Its increasing isolation from Europe could also force Russia to move even closer to India’s rival China, making India less secure. There may be opportunities to improve energy ties between India and Russia, but Western sanctions and geographic barriers will limit any energy gains.

The Russian-Ukrainian Crisis and the Energy Market

“…Considering the poorly implemented cooperation so far (about 2% of Indian oil imports), there is certainly room for improvement (Sullivan, 2022). India also took advantage of the current situation to reduce its own costs and buy energy at reduced prices (Warren & Ganguly, 2022). In addition to Asian countries, Russia will most likely direct its energy supplies to South Africa, the countries of the Middle East, and Brazil (EIA, 2022;Joshi & Sharma, 2017;Munir et al, 2013).…”

Indo-Russian Economic Engagement: Legacy Issues, Dynamic Shifts, and Possibilities for the Future

“…D espite the enduring bilateral relationship between India and Russia in the past (Joshi, Sharma 2017;Rekha 2017;Upadhyay 2015), the level of trade remains lower than desired. The recent imposition of Western sanctions on Russia presents fresh challenges to their economic engagements, and efforts to stimulate bilateral economic exchanges may be hindered by these developments (Warren, Ganguly 2022). Nevertheless, there are encouraging early trends in recent trade patterns.…”