Indicators of terrorist intent and capability: Tools for threat assessment

Schuurman, Bart; Eijkman, Quirine

doi:10.1080/17467586.2015.1040426

Cited by 27 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Activities in this category are focused on target selection and the elaboration of plans of attack, rather than on more practical necessities such as constructing explosives, which we have labeled attack preparation. A successful planning phase leaves (would‐be) terrorists with a clear (albeit often implicit, rather than formally recorded) road map of the actions that need to be undertaken to carry out their attack .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a small but growing literature that seeks to use knowledge of terrorist groups' modus operandi as the basis for "early warning indicators" that can then be incorporated in threat assessment work (41,42). Analyzing international and domestic terrorism in the United States between 1980 and 2004, Smith et al (43) found that, on average, terrorist incidents are preceded by 2.3 activities that authorities register.…”

Section: Insights From the Literature On Group-based Terrorismmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Schuurman

Bakker

Gill

et al. 2017

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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ABSTRACT:This article provides an in-depth assessment of lone actor terrorists' attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre-attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open-source materials and complemented where possible with primary sources. Most lone actors are not highly lethal or surreptitious attackers. They are generally poor at maintaining operational security, leak their motivations and capabilities in numerous ways, and generally do so months and even years before an attack. Moreover, the "loneness" thought to define this type of terrorism is generally absent; most lone actors uphold social ties that are crucial to their adoption and maintenance of the motivation and capability to commit terrorist violence. The results offer concrete input for those working to detect and prevent this form of terrorism and argue for a re-evaluation of the "lone actor" concept.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Insights From the Literature On Group-based Terrorismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Schuurman

Bakker

Gill

et al. 2017

Journal of Forensic Sciences

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…With the increased availability of first-hand primary data drawn from policing and intelligence agencies, such endeavours may soon be possible (Schuurman & Eijkman, 2015;Bockler, et al, 2015;De Bie & De Poot, 2016;Griffiths et al, 2017;Weenink, 2015). They may also make use of quantitative sequencing analysis.…”

Section: Implications For Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mental Disorders, Personality Traits, and Grievance-Fueled Targeted Violence: The Evidence Base and Implications for Research and Practice

Corner¹,

Gill²,

Schouten

et al. 2018

Journal of Personality Assessment

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This article aims to move away from intuitive appeals that link mental disorder with violence such as terrorism, mass murder, and other targeted violence. The article synthesizes the existing evidence base regarding the relationship between mental disorders and personality traits and (a) attitudinal affinities with violent causes, and (b) a number of violent behaviors (including mass murder and terrorism). The evidence base is mixed and the research focus changed across time: from simple and unempirical assertions of causation to an almost complete rejection of their presence to a finer grained and disaggregated understanding. Empirical research examining mental disorder in crime and violence highlights that the commission of such events is a complex synthesis of psychopathology, personal circumstance, and environment. The article concludes with several suggestions regarding future research and practice.

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“…We start from the assumption that this distinction is often difficult to make based on the indicators for risk that are available to local security professionals. These indicators generally consist of observable changes in behaviour and appearance [28,47]. In what follows, we map out how local security professionals substantiate their findings on radicalization and violent extremism within this ambiguous field.…”

Section: From Radicalization Towards Violent Extremism?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the literature, there is also significant substation to delve into practical realities. For example, it is not easy to capture in words, laws, and methods how one is to recognise and assess signs of radicalization processes [26][27][28]. The professional must be on the lookout for the first signs of deviant attitude; however, no clear framework is provided for such a preliminary judgment-if it is even possible to set up.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early detection of extremism? The local security professional on assessment of potential threats posed by youth

Weert

Eijkman

2019

Crime Law Soc Change

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Frontline professionals such as social workers and civil servants play a crucial role in countering violent extremism. Because of their direct contact with society, firstliners are tasked with detecting individuals that may threaten national security and the democratic rule of law. Preliminary screening takes place during the pre-crime phase. However, without clear evidence or concrete indicators of unlawful action or physical violence, it is challenging to determine when someone poses a threat. There are no set patterns that can be used to identify cognitive radicalization processes that will result in violent extremism. Furthermore, prevention targets ideas and ideologies with no clear framework for assessing terrorism-risk. This article examines how civil servants responsible for public order, security and safety deal with their mandate to engage in early detection, and discusses the side effects that accompany this practice. Based on openinterviews with fifteen local security professionals in the Netherlands, we focus here on the risk assessments made by these professionals. To understand their performance, we used the following two research questions: First, what criteria do local security professionals use to determine whether or not someone forms a potential risk? Second, how do local security professionals substantiate their assessments of the radicalization processes that will develop into violent extremism? We conclude that such initial risk weightings rely strongly on 'gut feelings' or intuition. We conclude that this subjectivity may lead to prejudice and/or administrative arbitrariness in relation to preliminary risk assessment of particular youth.

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Indicators of terrorist intent and capability: Tools for threat assessment

Cited by 27 publications

References 24 publications

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Mental Disorders, Personality Traits, and Grievance-Fueled Targeted Violence: The Evidence Base and Implications for Research and Practice

Early detection of extremism? The local security professional on assessment of potential threats posed by youth

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