Indifferent and Eurosceptic: The motivations of EU-only abstainers in the 2019 European Parliament election

Abstract

Despite the stark voter turnout increase in 2019, the participation level in European Parliament elections is still considerably lower than in national elections. How can we explain this persistent ‘Euro gap’? This article analyzes the motivations of citizens who participate in national but not in European electoral contests, so-called ‘EU-only abstainers’. The empirical analysis based on the EES 2019 voter study reveals that EU-only abstention is driven by low levels of general political interest and EU-specific political sophistication, as well as by distrust towards EU institutions. Therefore, the Euro gap results from the widespread perception that there is ‘less at stake’ during EP elections, but it is also an aggregate-level consequence of individual Eurosceptic attitudes. These findings have important implications for our understanding of present-day European elections and the debate between the two most common theoretical approaches in EP election research.

Issues that mobilize Europe. The role of key policy issues for voter turnout in the 2019 European Parliament election

“…What are the implications of our study for the future of EP elections and empirical research? Although we do not contest that European elections can still be considered second-order national elections, we also found evidence for their increasing politicization and the conclusion that ‘Europe matters’ in present-day EP elections (Schäfer, 2021). Moreover, our results show that the debate and electoral campaigns over crucial transnational policy issues bear the potential to increase turnout in European elections further.…”

“…Besides the well-known ‘EU issue voting’ argument that is imperative for the decision to vote for a party (De Vries, 2010; De Vries and Hobolt, 2016), EU attitudes are relevant for turnout. While pro-EU attitudes bolster the chance of electoral participation (Braun, 2021), non-voting in EP elections is motivated by Eurosceptic attitudes (Blondel et al, 1998; Clark, 2014; Hobolt and Spoon, 2012; Hobolt and Wittrock, 2011; Schäfer, 2021; Wessels and Franklin, 2009). In a similar vein, Schäfer and Debus (2018) demonstrate that issue congruence between voters and political parties matters for participation in EP elections and that this relationship has strengthened during the Euro crisis.…”

“…Voter turnout increased from 42.6% (in 2014) to 50.7% – the highest turnout in the past 20 years and the first time that overall participation in EP elections did not decrease but increased. Although electoral contests at the European level can still be considered ‘second-order elections’ (Boomgaarden et al, 2016; Plescia et al, 2020a; Reif and Schmitt, 1980; Schäfer, 2021; Schmitt et al, 2020), the 2019 election might have been different. The presumption that more Europeans went to the ballot box to shape the future path of the EU is reinforced by some immediate analyses of the 2019 EP election that ascribe the increase in electoral participation, at least partly, to a greater ‘Europeanness’ (Braun, 2021) and a higher politicization of EP elections (De Sio et al, 2019: 64).…”

Introduction to the special issue: No longer second-order? Explaining the European Parliament elections of 2019

“…Third, while some of the longitudinal perspectives indicate that EP elections have become (somewhat) less second-order, several contributions highlight that it would be premature to dismiss the second-order model altogether. According to Braun (2021), voters still consider European politics less important than national politics; and Schäfer (2021) finds that Euroscepticism is a strong predictor for abstention in EP elections. Likewise, party performance in the 2019 EP elections generally still comply with expectations of the second-order model (Ehin and Talving, 2021).…”

“…Ehin and Talving (2021) note that the decreasing turnout gap can be explained in part by the declining participation rates in national elections. Schäfer’s (2021) contribution to this Special Issue sheds light on this gap by assessing the motivations of those voters who vote in national elections but not in EP elections, the so-called ‘EU-only abstainers’. He does not set out to explain country differences, but zooms in on individual level determinants of EP turnout.…”