Indirect land use changes of biofuel production – a review of modelling efforts and policy developments in the European Union

Abstract

The issue of indirect land use changes (ILUC) caused by the promotion of transport biofuels has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, we reviewed the current literature on modelling work to estimate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) caused by ILUC of biofuels. We also reviewed the development of ILUC policies in the EU. Our review of past modelling work revealed that most studies employ economic equilibrium modelling and focus on ethanol fuels, especially with maize as feedstock. It also revealed major variation in the results from the models, especially for biodiesel fuels. However, there has been some convergence of results over time, particularly for ethanol from maize, wheat and sugar cane. Our review of EU policy developments showed that the introduction of fuel-specific ILUC factors has been officially suggested by policymakers to deal with the ILUC of biofuels. The values proposed as ILUC factors in the policymaking process in the case of ethanol fuels are generally in line with the results of the latest modelling exercises, in particular for first-generation ethanol fuels from maize and sugar cane, while those for biodiesel fuels are somewhat higher. If the proposed values were introduced into EU policy, no (first-generation) biodiesel fuel would be able to comply with the EU GHG saving requirements. We identified a conflict between the demand from EU policymakers for exact, highly specific values and the capacity of the current models to supply results with that level of precision. We concluded that alternative policy approaches to ILUC factors should be further explored.

Energy Crop-Based Biogas as Vehicle Fuel—The Impact of Crop Selection on Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Performance

“…Both cases include direct land use changes (dLUC), but potential iLUC are excluded in this study. The reason for this is that (i) all biogas systems analysed are based on crops cultivated on existing farmland and thus will have a similar impact on potential displacements of food crop production; and (ii) the issue of iLUC is embodied with significant uncertainties from a scientific perspective and thus should preferably be handled separately and outside detailed field-to-tank assessments [6]. In the sensitivity analysis, an additional calculation methodology is tested, which represents the GHG calculation approach standardised in the EU's RED [5].…”

Bioeconomy Strategies: Contexts, Visions, Guiding Implementation Principles and Resulting Debates

“…However, ILUC effects can only be assessed based on models, and the assessments come to variating results. The introduction of ILUC factors in the EU regulation is discussed controversially [137]. In the case of forest bioenergy systems, it is questioned whether existing certification schemes are sufficient to counter already established public doubts that forest bioenergy can contribute to sustainable development [138].…”

Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market

“…The diversion of land previously used in food production towards energy crops (Land Use Change-LUC) is considered to be one factor behind those food price hikes [22][23][24][25], mainly because of its impacts on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and wider ecosystems. When demand for biofuels increases, farmers will have an incentive to meet this demand by producing more feedstock for biofuels production.…”