BackgroundPreviously developed models in ophthalmology have generally used a Markovian structure. There are a number of limitations with this approach, most notably the ability to base patient outcomes on bestcorrected visual acuity (BCVA) in both eyes, which may be overcome using a different modelling structure. Simulation modelling allows for this to be modelled more precisely, and therefore may provide more accurate and relevant estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ophthalmology interventions.
ObjectiveThis study aimed to explore the appropriateness of simulation modelling in ophthalmology, using the disease area of wet age-related macular degeneration (wAMD) as an example.
MethodsA de novo economic model was built using a patient-level simulation, which compared ranibizumab to aflibercept in wAMD. Disease progression was measured using BCVA. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was estimated using a regression analysis linking BCVA in each eye to utility. The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service in the UK. Five different regression models were explored and were based on BCVA in either one eye or both eyes.
ResultsThe model outputs provide some evidence to support the hypothesis that the analyses using the two-eye models for estimating HRQoL generate a more accurate estimation of incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with the positive treatment effect for ranibizumab versus aflibercept. Second-order analysis broadly supported these findings, and showed that the variation in incremental costs was slightly lower than in incremental QALYs. The second-order analysis estimated similar incremental costs and a greater overall variation in incremental QALYs than the first-order analysis, suggesting important non-linearities within the model.
ConclusionsThis analysis suggests that patient-level simulation models may be well suited to representing the realworld patient pathway in wAMD, particularly when aspects of disease progression cannot be adequately captured using a Markov structure. The benefits of a simulation approach can be demonstrated in the modelling of HRQoL as a function of BCVA in both eyes.
Key Points for Decision Makers Patient-level simulation modelling may be a technique well-suited to representing the patient pathway and disease progression in ophthalmology. An analysis of two NICE-approved treatments for wAMD provides an example of the benefits of simulation modelling over cohort (Markov) modelling in this disease area.3