Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Wang, Qiang; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Zhang, Yuqing; Xiang, Jie; Xu, Yu; Wang, Jie

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104805

Cited by 59 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The temperature had risen by about 0.45 • C/10 a, and the climate showed a warming and drying trend. Studies have shown that climate change will cause changes in temperature and precipitation, which affected the characteristics of soil moisture and temperature, the photosynthesis and water use efficiency of vegetation, regulated the growth of vegetation, and had impacts on land use/cover further [7,8,48,49]. The rise of temperature and the change of precipitation characteristics in the Yiluo River Basin may lead to the decrease of vegetation coverage area [50][51][52][53], which were related to ecological service functions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are many driving factors of LUCC-based anthropogenic activities such as continued population growth, industrial development, urban expansion, and policy factors, which are the key drivers over the years [4][5][6], however, the effects of climate variability cannot be ignored. Climate variability caused changes in temperature and rainfall, which may affect the growth of vegetation and the effectiveness of water resources, and exerted influences on land use/cover further [7][8][9]. The impacts of climate variability on land use/cover have attracted more and more attention in recent years, especially the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover under the background of future climate variability [10,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

et al. 2021

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Ecosystem service values are closely related to land use/cover change, however, the values affected by land use/cover change in the context of climate variability remain unclear. Based on the land use/cover data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 in the Yiluo River Basin, we quantitatively analyzed the impacts of historical land use/cover change on the ecosystem service values. Then the future land use simulation model was applied to predict the land use/cover distribution in 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, and the influences on ecosystem service values were analyzed further. We found that the total ecosystem service values in the Yiluo River Basin presented a growth from 9217 million dollars (2000) to 9676 million dollars (2020), which attributed to the increase of forestland and water bodies in recent years. By 2030, the total ecosystem service values continued to present an upward trend, while also showing a difference under three scenarios, this discrepancy was mainly caused by different precipitation conditions. With the introduction of the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin in the new period, climate change may be the main factors affecting the ecological field in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

et al. 2021

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“…And the input data of baseline scenario and developed scenarios were all from CMIP6. We used multi‐model ensemble climate simulations (three SSPs) to reduce the uncertainties when applied to evaluate hydrological process responses to climate change (Q. Wang et al, 2020). Therefore, the hydrological variations between different scenarios were comparable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In mountain watersheds, climate change works to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as extreme rainstorms, high temperature, as well as streamflow events accordingly (Q. Wang et al, 2020). Therefore, the degradation of ecological diversity relating to hydrological alteration would be more prominent under future climate conditions.…”

Section: Implication For Water Resource Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use on hydrological processes: A comparison between mountain and lowland agricultural watersheds

Cui

Tian

Gao

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Mountain and lowland watersheds are two distinct geographical units with considerably different hydrological processes. Understanding their hydrological processes in the context of future climate change and land use scenarios is important for water resource management. This study investigated hydrological processes and their driving factors and eco-hydrological impacts for these two geographical units in the Xitiaoxi watershed, East China, and quantified their differences through hydrological modelling. Hydrological processes in 24 mountain watersheds and 143 lowland watersheds were simulated based on a raster-based Xin'anjiang model and a Nitrogen Dynamic Polder (NDP) model, respectively. These two models were calibrated and validated with an acceptable performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.81 and 0.50, respectively) for simulating discharge for mountain watersheds and water level for lowland watersheds. Then, an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) model was used to help quantify the alterations to the hydrological process and their resulting eco-hydrological impacts. Based on the validated models, scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological processes. The simulation results revealed that (a) climate change would cause a larger increase in annual runoff than that under land use scenario in the mountain watersheds, with variations of 19.9 and 10.5% for the 2050s, respectively. (b) Land use change was more responsible for the streamflow increment than climate change in the lowland watersheds, causing an annual runoff to increase by 27.4 and 16.2% for the 2050s, respectively. (c) Land use can enhance the response of streamflow to the climatic variation. (d) The above-mentioned hydrological variations were notable in flood and dry season in the mountain watersheds, and they were significant in rice season in the lowland watersheds. (e) Their resulting degradation of ecological diversity was more susceptible to future climate change in the two watersheds. This study demonstrated that mountain and lowland watersheds showed

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“…Water resources are key to human survival and development and form an integral component of ecosystems. However, water resources at a global scale are facing increasing threats due to rapid economic development, population growth, and urban expansion [1]. Climate change has changed the temporal and spatial distribution of global precipitation, temperature and other meteorological elements, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin

Wang

Shao

Jiang

et al. 2020

Land

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Guishui River Basin in northwestern Beijing has ecological significance and will be one of the venues of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympic Games in 2022. However, accelerating climate change and human disturbance in recent decades has posed an increasing challenge to the sustainable use of water in the basin. This study simulated the runoff of the Guishui River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to reveal the spatio-temporal variations of runoff in the basin and the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff changes. The results showed that annual runoff from 2004 to 2018 was relatively small, with an uneven intra-annual runoff distribution. The seasonal trends in runoff showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter while an increasing trend in summer and autumn. There was a first increasing and then decreasing trend of average annual runoff depth from northwest to southeast in the study area. In addition, the contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff of the Guishui River Basin were 60% and 40%, respectively, but with opposite effects. The results can contribute to the rational utilization of water resources in the Guishui River Basin.

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Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Cited by 59 publications

References 47 publications

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use on hydrological processes: A comparison between mountain and lowland agricultural watersheds

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin

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