Individual-based modeling of eco-evolutionary dynamics: state of the art and future directions

Romero‐Mujalli, Daniel; Jeltsch, Florian; Tiedemann, Ralph

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1406-7

Cited by 26 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…In contrast, in terrestrial dynamic global vegetation models fundamental adaptive processes (e.g., acclimation, plasticity, migration, selection, and evolution), are now being accounted for to allow for an exploration of their potential to mitigate effects of climate extremes (Scheiter et al, 2013). Some modeling frameworks are also beginning to explicitly represent evolution and its implications for ecological processes (Grimm and Berger, 2016), such as predation pressure and trait expression (Forestier et al, in press;Romero-Mujalli et al, 2019). This can create new tensions in modelingwhat is the effective benefit of replacing one set of fixed parameters (e.g., around growth) with others (e.g., around rates of evolution).…”

Section: Non-static Model Representationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

et al. 2019

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Section: Non-static Model Representationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

et al. 2019

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“…The scenarios of beneficial mutations were implemented only for the environmental conditions η > 0 (directional climate change). For the stable environment ( η = 0 ), the effect of mutations was drawn from a gaussian distribution centered in zero as it is commonly done in IBMs of explicit genetics [2, 4, 15] and acted as a control. Note that under directional environmental change, this is exactly our scenario of 50% beneficial mutations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For genetic changes to occur, mutations are the ultimate source of novel variation, and it is generally assumed that a mutation is a rare event [1]. Consequently, individual-based models of explicit genetics typically assume small and constant (i.e., non-evolving) mutation rates [2–4]. According to evidence, only few mutations are adaptive; many deleterious; and some are neutral [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevated mutation rates are unlikely to evolve in sexual species, not even under rapid environmental change

2019

Self Cite

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Background Organisms are expected to respond to changing environmental conditions through local adaptation, range shift or local extinction. The process of local adaptation can occur by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity, and becomes especially relevant when dispersal abilities or possibilities are somehow constrained. For genetic changes to occur, mutations are the ultimate source of variation and the mutation rate in terms of a mutator locus can be subject to evolutionary change. Recent findings suggest that the evolution of the mutation rate in a sexual species can advance invasion speed and promote adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Following this idea, this work uses an individual-based model approach to investigate if the mutation rate can also evolve in a sexual species experiencing different conditions of directional climate change, under different scenarios of colored stochastic environmental noise, probability of recombination and of beneficial mutations. The color of the noise mimicked investigating the evolutionary dynamics of the mutation rate in different habitats. Results The results suggest that the mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change scenarios can evolve and reach relatively high values mainly under conditions of complete linkage of the mutator locus and the adaptation locus. In contrast, when they are unlinked, the mutation rate can slightly increase only under scenarios where at least 50% of arising mutations are beneficial and the rate of environmental change is relatively fast. This result is robust under different scenarios of stochastic environmental noise, which supports the observation of no systematic variation in the mutation rate among organisms experiencing different habitats. Conclusions Given that 50% beneficial mutations may be an unrealistic assumption, and that recombination is ubiquitous in sexual species, the evolution of an elevated mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change might be rather unlikely. Furthermore, when the percentage of beneficial mutations and the population size are small, sexual species (especially multicellular ones) producing few offspring may be expected to react to changing environments not by adaptive genetic change, but mainly through plasticity. Without the ability for a plastic response, such species may become – at least locally – extinct. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-019-1494-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…Unlike other modeling approaches for HES (e.g. systems dynamics modeling [87]), ABMs can readily simulate complex feedbacks for heterogeneous agents in a spatially explicit system, and are increasingly used as an exploratory tool to study social phenomena [88], ecological processes [89], and the behavior of HES systems [90,91]. Models that couple a human behavior (HB) ABM, with a land use change (LUC) cellular automata model that tracks environmental variables in a heterogeneous landscape, have recently proliferated in the study of SSNRD systems [see 22, 84, 92-97 for reviews and discussions].…”

Section: Coupled Human Behavior-land Use Change (Hb+luc) Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing the integration of ecosystem services and livelihood adaptation

King

Nelson

McGreevy

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Around the world today, the magnitude and rates of environmental, social, and economic change are undermining the sustainability of many rural societies that rely directly on natural resources for their livelihoods. Sustainable development efforts seek to promote livelihood adaptations that enhance food security and reduce social-ecological vulnerability, but these efforts are hampered by the difficulty of understanding the complexity and dynamism of rural livelihood systems. Disparate research avenues are strengthening our ability to grapple with complexity. But we are only just beginning to find ways to simultaneously account for problematic complexities, including multiscalar feedbacks in the ecosystems that that support livelihoods, the heterogeneous benefits garnered by different segments of society, and the complex contingencies that constrain people's decisions and capacities to adapt. To provide a more nuanced analysis of the dynamics of transformation in rural livelihood systems, we identified key complementarities between four different research approaches, enabling us to integrate them in a novel research framework that can guide empirical and modeling research on livelihood adaptation. The framework capitalizes upon parallel concepts of sequentiality in (1) ecosystem services and (2) livelihood adaptation scholarship, then incorporates principles from (3) adaptation in social-ecological systems research to account for the dynamism inherent in these often rapidly-transforming systems. Lastly, we include advances in (4) agent-based modeling, which couples human decisions and land use change and provides tools to incorporate complex social-ecological feedbacks in simulation studies of livelihood adaptation. Here we describe the new Ecosystem Services-Livelihood Adaptation (ESLA) framework, explain how it links the contributing approaches, and illustrate its application with two case studies. We offer guidance for its implementation in empirical and modeling research, and conclude with a discussion of current challenges in sustainability science and the contributions that could be gained through research guided by the ESLA framework. sustainability of small-scale natural resource-dependent (SSNRD) livelihood systems worldwide. In such rapidly transforming systems, achieving Sustainable Development Goals simultaneously for improved human well-being, poverty reduction, food security, and environmental sustainability will require effective and holistic strategies for livelihood adaptation [2].

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Individual-based modeling of eco-evolutionary dynamics: state of the art and future directions

Cited by 26 publications

References 107 publications

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective

Elevated mutation rates are unlikely to evolve in sexual species, not even under rapid environmental change

Advancing the integration of ecosystem services and livelihood adaptation

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