Individualised prediction of chemotherapy benefit in early-onset colorectal cancer

Abstract

Purposes Whether patients with early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) receive chemotherapy has been controversial, so our study aimed to screen patients with EOCRC who benefit from chemotherapy. Methods A total of 2166 EOCRC patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were divided into chemotherapy and non-chemotherapy groups, propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the differences between the groups, and the Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of EOCRC patients. Multifactorial COX regression analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors for CSS and to construct a nomogram for predicting CSS in EOCRC patients. The overall risk score was calculated based on Nomogram, and EOCRC patients were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups to assess further chemotherapy's therapeutic effect on patients with different risk stratification. Results Before PSM, patients in the chemotherapy group had poorer CSS ( p < 0.001). After PSM, there was no significant difference in patient CSS between the two groups ( p = 0.057). Independent prognostic factors (Race, Grade, Pathology, AJCC.N, AJCC.M, CEA, Marital. Status) were screened according to multifactorial COX regression analyses and included in the Nomogram predicting CSS in EOCRC patients. A risk stratification system for EOCRC patients was further developed, and the results showed that chemotherapy had no significant effect on CSS in the low-risk group of patients, but in the high-risk group, chemotherapy significantly improved CSS in EOCRC patients. Conclusions We developed a clinical risk model by combining different risk factors, which can accurately screen those with high-risk EOCRC for benefit from chemotherapy. For low-risk EOCRC patients, our results did not observe a better survival benefit from chemotherapy, and more prospective studies are needed in the future to prove our conclusions. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12672-024-01490-3.