Individualized risk estimation for postoperative pulmonary complications after hepatectomy based on perioperative variables

Abstract

BACKGROUND At present, there is no perfect system to evaluate pulmonary complications of liver surgery using perioperative variables. AIM To design and verify a risk assessment system for predicting postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) after hepatectomy based on perioperative variables. METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on 1633 patients who underwent liver surgery. The variables were screened using univariate and multivariate analyses, and graded scores were assigned to the selected variables. Logistic regression was used to develop the liver operation pulmonary complication scoring system (LOPCSS) for the prediction of PPCs. The LOPCSS was verified using the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS According to the multivariate correlation analysis, the independent factors which influenced PPCs of liver surgery were age [≥ 65 years old/< 65 years old, odds ratio (OR) = 1.926, P = 0.011], medical diseases requiring drug treatment (yes/no, OR = 3.523, P < 0.001), number of liver segments to be removed (≥ 3/≤ 2, OR = 1.683, P = 0.002), operation duration (≥ 180 min/< 180 min, OR = 1.896, P = 0.004), and blood transfusion (yes/no, OR = 1.836, P = 0.003). The area under the curve (AUC) of the LOPCSS was 0.742. The cut-off value of the expected score for complications was 5. The incidence of complications in the group with ≤ 4 points was significantly lower than that in the group with ≥ 6 points (2.95% vs 33.40%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, in the validation dataset, the corresponding AUC of LOPCSS was 0.767. CONCLUSION As a novel and simplified assessment system, the LOPCSS can effectively predict PPCs of liver surgery through perioperative variables.