Indonesia’s Export-Import Prediction: A Hybrid Moving Average Approach

Abstract

Indonesia as one of the largest countries in Asia Pacific region plays a crucial role in international trading. Since both the import and export performance have become key variables in economic growth of a nation, the urgent to have a proper prediction and analysis of those variables has become a major issue. In this study, we try to address the issue by using a relatively new hybrid moving average approach, i.e. the WEMA (Weighted Exponential Moving Average) method. Using different parameters, it has been shown that WEMA approach could predict Indonesia's export-import future values. Based on MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and MASE (Mean Absolute Scaled Error) values as forecast error measurement criteria, WEMA gives the best performance in predicting Indonesia's export weight in kg unit.