Indonesian Macro Policy Through Two Crises

Azwar, Prayudhi; Tyers, Rodney

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2610963

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…14 Progenitors include Tyers (2001Tyers ( , 2015 and Azwar and Tyers (2015). 15 This model is not of the "new Keynesian" type since we prefer to retain Phillips curve behaviour with endogenous employment.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Monetary Policy Targeting Regimes for Small Open Economies

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper quantifies the performance of five monetary policy regimes in controlling macroeconomic volatility triggered by a variety of supply, demand and external shocks in small open economies. While the proposed macroeconomic model is generic, the application is to the case of Sri Lanka. The investigated regimes separately target the exchange rate, a monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, the CPI inflation rate and a Taylor composite of output gaps and inflation. The results suggest that inflation targeting offers the least macro-economic volatility overall. Consistent with earlier research and Mundell's financial trilemma, its stabilising power is greatest under demand and external shocks, which have grown more prominent as product and financial markets have opened.

show abstract

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Monetary Policy Targeting Regimes for Small Open Economies

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The key effect of the raw shocks on China is to cause collapses in domestic consumption and investment. Real national income and saving both contract but not by as much as investment and so the current account surplus expands and there is a flood of Chinese exports, rather like what happened during the AFC (Azwar and Tyers, ). The export surge is linked to a financial outflow that is directed primarily to the US.…”

Section: Effects Of a Significant Chinese Recessionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Chinese government has a positive record in this regard. On the other hand, where events such as financial crises precipitate political change, the contractionary effects can be very large indeed, as in Indonesia in 1998 (Azwar and Tyers, 2015). that are associated with China's emergence to economic modernity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Tyers

2016

Scottish J Political Eco

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

China's comparatively rapid consumption growth since 2010 and its increasing economic similarity with advanced economies, imply that consumer and business confidence are now central to performance, changing its global impacts and rendering recession more likely. The international effects of its new growth pattern are quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing. The transition to consumption‐led growth is shown to foster employment abroad while a major Chinese recession is shown to be damaging to the advanced economies and particularly to the US, the more so if China's policy response is expansionary and includes floating the RMB.

show abstract

“…The further effects on employment and real GDP levels in those regions are not large, though this further scenario does direct the international effects more strongly toward the US. 46 See Azwar and Tyers (2015).…”

Section: Adding Pessimism Shocks In the Advanced Economiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Tyers

2015

SSRN Journal

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Central to the global impacts of China's emergence has been its structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), but this has diminished considerably in the transition years since 2010. These imbalances are now reversed as its consumption expands faster than its GDP and so the global implications are qualitatively different. Moreover, higher income, slower growth, and therefore increasing similarity with the advanced economies, implies that consumer and business confidence are now more central to performance, rendering recession possible, and more likely as the growth slowdown raises the intensity of the domestic spotlight on political performance. The international effects of the transition and a possible recession are here quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing. The transition to consumption-led growth is shown to foster employment abroad, particularly in the US, while a major Chinese recession is shown to be damaging to the advanced economies and particularly to the US, the more so if China's policy response is expansionary and includes floating the RMB.

show abstract

Indonesian Macro Policy Through Two Crises

Cited by 5 publications

References 34 publications

Assessing Monetary Policy Targeting Regimes for Small Open Economies

Assessing Monetary Policy Targeting Regimes for Small Open Economies

Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About