Indus River Basin: Future climate and water budget

Abstract

Funding informationMoEF&CC under NMHS scheme Indus River Basin (IRB) in the western Himalayas is very important for the sustainability of livelihood, food and water security of its inhabitants. In the present work, changing climate and its impact on water budget of IRB is discussed. For this, simulation from a regional climate model (REMO) is studied for present and future (till 2099) climate under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs). It is distinctly seen that, there is a likely increased (decreased) precipitation over upper (lower) IRB under both the RCPs. Moreover, a heterogeneous warming pattern is projected over the region with season-specific response of warming towards increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Higher (lower) evapotranspiration over the lower (central) IRB raise serious concerns about water issues. The changes in climatic parameters will have huge impact on the associated water budget. Linkages of water budget with the corresponding precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and runoff provide possible mechanisms for depleting (enhancing) water storage over the lower (upper) IRB during DJF (JJAS). This will have impact on agriculture, crop and water security of the region and thus underlines the need for adaptation policies at governance level. K E Y W O R D SClimate, Himalayas, Indus River Basin, RCP, regional climate model, water budget

Seasonal Cropland Trends and Their Nexus with Agrometeorological Parameters in the Indus River Plain

“…A future increase in any of these agrometeorological parameters resulting from global warming would harm the regional cropland's EVI response. For example, a rise in PET would increase the crop irrigation requirement to maintain optimal AET rates and ensure stable cropland productivity [40]. The more exploitation of water resources would further degrade the basin's ecosystem services and aggravate the existing water disputes at local and regional scales.…”

Scaling methods of leakage correction in GRACE mass change estimates revisited for the complex hydro-climatic setting of the Indus Basin

“…The winter climate over the Indus Basin is dominated by western disturbances embedded with the Indian winter monsoon. During the summer, the Indian monsoon (ISM) brings precipitation to the southern parts of the basin (Dimri et al, 2019). The mean annual rainfall varies between 90 and 500 mm in the downstream and midstream segments, while there is more than 1000 mm in the upstream catchments.…”

Scaling methods of leakage correction in GRACE mass change estimates revisited for the complex hydro-climatic setting of the Indus basin

“…During the summer season, the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) brings in precipitation over southern parts of the basin (Dimri et al, 2019). The mean annual rainfall varies between 90 and 500 mm in the downstream and midstream segments, while more than 1000 mm in the upstream catchments.…”

“…The mean annual rainfall varies between 90 and 500 mm in the downstream and midstream segments, while more than 1000 mm in the upstream catchments. The climate in the Indus Basin varies from subtropical arid and semi-arid to temperate sub-humid in Sindh and Punjab to alpine in the mountainous highlands in the north, with average temperatures ranging between 2°C and 49°C (Dimri et al, 2019). The hydro-climatic parameters in the Upper Indus basin are primarily 120 influenced by glacier melt and in the lower part by human intervention in the form of different irrigation schemes and extensive groundwater depletion (Rodell et al, 2009).…”