Industrial Application of Synthetic Irradiance: Case Study of Solar Yield

Abstract

Industrial activity concerned with the profitability and safety of investments can be supported and promoted by research through the creation of new mathematical modeling approaches, and the quantification and mitigation of uncertainties. In recent years there has been increasing interest in the adoption of probabilistic approaches to assess sources of uncertainty in solar energy systems to estimate their feasibility, considering yield estimates, investments, operation and maintenance costs, and solar resource. In this context, the synthetic solar irradiance data set approach emerges as a promising tool to emulate the variability inherent to the solar resource in confident designs and feasibility analyses of these systems. Chapter 5 deals with the requirements of the industry with respect to synthetic solar data, and how such requirements are currently addressed during the main stages of development of solar projects. We recap methods for benchmarking the success of generated synthetic irradiance, reviewing statistical indicators for that purpose. We discuss and compare the use of single annual and multiple synthetic annual data sets of solar irradiance in the first stages of solar projects, and present their uses in a case study application in a Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plant with a similar configuration to a well-known operational Parabolic Trough (PT) plant located in Spain.

Synthetic Generation of Plausible Solar Years For Long-Term Forecasting of Solar Radiation

“…As a result, the annual synthetic series describe can describe a wide range of solar resource scenarios, including extreme ones that have never been observed, all of them compatible with the observed highfrequency meteorological variability of the location. PMYs generation allows the stochastic simulation of a solar harnessing system considering the uncertainty and variability inherent of the solar resource ( Larrañeta et al, 2021) In this paper, we present and evaluate an algorithm based on the method used by Larrañeta et al, (2019) for the synthetic generation of high-resolution plausible solar years. The algorithm is suitable for any location where satellite derived datasets are available.…”

“…The algorithm is suitable for any location where satellite derived datasets are available. The synthetic generation process has been automatized and an open tool has been recently developed (Larrañeta et al, 2021). The methodology does not need any local adaptation or calibration, although better results are obtained when using good quality high-frequency data measured on site.…”

Synthetic generation of plausible solar years for long-term forecasting of solar radiation

“…These series take into account the observed variability of the solar resource at the site, assuming the future trends may be characterized by past trends. PMYs generation allows the stochastic simulation of a solar harnessing system considering the uncertainty and variability inherent of the solar resource [14].…”