Industrial Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Decoupling Study and Driving Factor Analysis: A Case Study of Sichuan Province, China

Abstract

Background The carbon emission of industrial energy consumption has an important impact on a region's carbon emission reduction and optimization of carbon emission path. Based on the STIRPAT model and the TAPIO decoupling model, this study analyzes the driving factors and decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption and economic growth in Sichuan Province. Results (1) The industrial carbon emissions in Sichuan Province are increasing first and then decreasing, with an increase of 18.78% from 2005 to 2022, and the carbon emission intensity has decreased from 1.94 tons/10,000 yuan to 0.29 tons/10,000 yuan; (2) The decoupling relationship between industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in Sichuan Province presents three development periods, mainly strong decoupling and weak decoupling. According to the decomposition factors, the decoupling relationship between industrial carbon emissions and economic development is mainly affected by the decoupling coefficient of value creation and emission reduction; (3) The proportion of secondary industry, the number of industrial enterprises, and the total industrial assets are the main carbon promoting factors of industrial carbon emission in Sichuan Province, with elastic coefficients of 0.097, 0.057 and 0.040 respectively; population size is a carbon reduction factor with an elastic coefficient of -0.087. Conclusions (1) The overall carbon emissions from industrial consumption in Sichuan Province have shown an upward trend followed by a downward trend. From 2005 to 2022, industrial energy consumption mainly consisted of coal, oil, and natural gas, with energy consumption showing a downward trend; (2) The carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption and economic development in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2022 are mainly in a state of strong decoupling and weak decoupling, showing three distinct development periods overall; (3) Among the driving factors of carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption in Sichuan Province, the proportion of the secondary industry, the number of industrial enterprises, and the total industrial assets are the main carbon promoting factors, with elasticity coefficients of 0.097, 0.057, and 0.040, respectively. The proportion of the secondary industry has the greatest impact factor. Based on this, the paper proposes to create a new green and low-carbon industrial model with low energy consumption, low pollution, and low emissions characteristics, enhance economic resilience, improve economic development resilience, formulate a reasonable development scale that coordinates industrial development with environmental protection, and steadily promote policy recommendations for energy conservation and emission reduction.