INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE and REGIONAL GROWTH: A METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEM1

MacKay, D. I.

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1969.tb00023.x

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…For example, industry growth may be affected by growth in other industries in the same local- ity (e .g . Mackay, 1968), so the shift-share residual component may contain this industry-mix effect. It is therefore important to interpret the shift-share residual component as simply the difference between the growth to be expected if industries grew at exactly national rates and that which actually occurred .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Location of High-technology Manufacturing in Great Britain: Changes in the Late 1980s

Fingleton

1994

Urban Studies

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Positive feedback processes, set in the context of all-industry location factors, provide the theoretical background to the statistical analysis of the shift-share residual component which is used to identify the localisation and delocalisation by county of high-technology manufacturing in Great Britain. Delocalisation from London appears to be well established, but apart from the Welsh countries, where the stimulus seems to be largely policy effects, none of the other shift-share residuals are significant enough to be distinguishable from random variation . However, this is after the elimination of an `aerospace effect' which significantly disturbs the otherwise random spatial variation. The techniques used in the paper separate signal from noise in the residual component of the shift-share method, which by itself offers no `explanation' of the residual .

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Location of High-technology Manufacturing in Great Britain: Changes in the Late 1980s

Fingleton

1994

Urban Studies

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“…Its refinement results f r o m the recent work of Dunn [11,12] and Ashby [1,2,3,4]. The shift ,and share model has been criticized as being monotonic [20,5], and that industry interdependence is ignored [25]. The technique has also been suggested as useful for describing regional e c onomic activity [9,13,14,28,29,19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

The stability of the regional share component: some further evidence

Floyd

Sirmans

1975

Ann Reg Sci

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Abstr actThe shift and share method of regional analysis has definite appeal as a projection device, and has r e c e i v e d both considerable attention in the literature and wide usage in recent y e a r s . One of the principal c r i t i c i s m s of the technique is that the regional share component of the model is unstable over ~ time. The purpose of this paper is to provide further evidence on the debate regarding the stability of the share component using correlation analysis. This paper provides a test of the hypotheses of J a m e s and Hughes that (1) the component is possibly unstable for certain industries while being stable for others and (2) the stability v a r i e s across state or other geographic regions.The results do not support the conclusion that the share component is so highly unstable that the shift and share model is unusable as a projection technique. The tests indicate that the share component is stable for 23 of the 29 individual industries. The share component also proved stable for a majority of tests at the multi-state and state level of geographic disaggregation while being unstable for sub-state regions.

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“…A strong objection to shift-share was advanced by Mackay (1968) who argued that the technique underestimates the influence of industrial structure, since any change in one industry will have an effect on other industries via multiplier effects and industrial linkages . In principle, any changes reflected in the structural component should have multiplier effects .…”

Section: Multipliers and Linkagesmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The technique based on articles by Thirlwall (1967), Mackay (1968), has been used in regional analysis since before the Buck (1970) and Stillwel (1970) . These are sumlast war, and its application in this field has grown marised and given extra emphasis by Richardson steadily, particularly in the last 10 or 15 years .…”

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confidence: 99%

In Defence of Shift-Share

Fothergill¹,

Gudgin

1979

Urban Studies

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The paper argues that criticisms of shift-share techniques are insufficiently strong to affect its application to the analysis of regional growth in the United Kingdom . Evidence for the 11 British regions for 1952-75 is used to demonstrate the robustness of the technique in the context of differing levels of sectoral disaggregation and choice of base years and the technique is then extended to incorporate multiplier and linkage effects . Finally its utility is compared with that of analysis of variance techniques for standardising for industrial structure .Shift-share fits the expectation that, when a tech-Criticisms of the technique, or more accurately nique is simple and apparently useful, it will be both of its use in regional growth analyses, are mainly widely used and heavily criticised . The technique based on articles by Thirlwall (1967), Mackay (1968), has been used in regional analysis since before the Buck (1970) and Stillwel (1970) . These are sumlast war, and its application in this field has grown marised and given extra emphasis by Richardson steadily, particularly in the last 10 or 15 years . It is (1978) who states that the `widespread applications surprising that this growth has occurred since almost are inappropriate' and that `the primitive technique everything written directly about shift-share has should be abandoned' . been critical . Recently the criticism has reached Finally, a different line of attack has come from new peaks, and since this coincides with wider than advocates of analysis of variance as an alternative ever usage it is an appropriate time to attempt to technique (Brown, 1972 ;Weeden, 1974) . As a decide whether the criticisms are justified, or method of systematically examining the various alternatively whether the applications should be criticisms we will follow the six-point organisation reduced or even cease altogether. adopted by Richardson, and add to this some The wide use of shift-share in the United Kingdom comments on the relative merits of shift-share and is well documented by the Northern Region analysis of variance . Strategy Team (1974) . Most of the applications However, before proceeding to examine the have been directed towards regions with employ-criticisms it is worth saying something about the ment problems, and good examples of detailed nature and purpose of the technique . The shiftapplications of the technique in the context of share technique has a single specific purpose . It regional problems occur in Randall (1973) and the allows investigators to measure or to make some West Central Scotland Plan (1974) . One major allowance for the degree to which some structural strand of application has been in the work of Moore charateristic accounts for differences between cateand Rhodes who have used the technique in esti-gories of an overall population . The categories are mating the impact of UK regional policy, (e .g. most frequently (but not necessarily) spatial ones, Moore and Rhodes, 1973) . The basic technique regions for instance . The differences a...

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INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE and REGIONAL GROWTH: A METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEM1

Cited by 16 publications

References 1 publication

The Location of High-technology Manufacturing in Great Britain: Changes in the Late 1980s

The Location of High-technology Manufacturing in Great Britain: Changes in the Late 1980s

The stability of the regional share component: some further evidence

In Defence of Shift-Share

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