Inestabilidad, crecimiento y desempeño económico: evidencia de 17 países de América Latina, 1980-2014

Abstract

Artículo de investigación desarrollado en el marco del proyecto "Factores internos y externos del crecimiento en Latinoamérica", con vigencia durante el periodo 2013-2016, financiado por la Secretaría de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Universidad Nacional del Sur. RESUMENEl trabajo estudia el efecto de la inestabilidad económica sobre el crecimiento en 17 países de Latinoamérica en el período 1980-2014 para tres diferentes grupos de crecimiento económico: bajo, medio y alto. La hipótesis es que una economía más inestable, es decir, con mayor inflación y volatilidad del producto perjudica a la inversión y, por tanto, al crecimiento. Para contrastar esta hipótesis se estima un modelo de efectos aleatorios usando un panel de 17 países de América Latina de un período de 35 años, en el cual se clasifican los países de acuerdo con el método de clúster de k-medianas. Los resultados indican que la inestabilidad afecta negativamente el desempeño económico de la región, en particular en los países de menor crecimiento. Por tanto, en estos casos se recomienda la aplicación de políticas anticíclicas y anti-inflacionarias. This paper studies the effect of economic stability on the growth of 17 Latin American countries between 1980-2014 for three different economic growth groups; low, middle and high. The hypothesis is that a more unstable economy, meaning, a larger inflation and product volatility, negatively affects investments, which affects growth. In order to contrast this hypothesis, a random effect model is estimated using a panel of 17 Latin American countries in a 35-year period, in which countries are classified according to the k-median cluster method. Results indicate that instability affects negatively the economic performance of the region, particularly countries with a smaller growth. Because of this, the recommendation for such cases is the application of anti-cyclic and anti-inflationary policies. PALABRAS CLAVE

Debt, economic growth and threshold effects: Evidence from developing countries

“…In addition, we also included eight control variables according to the growth literature (Levine & Renelt, 1992; Dabús & Laumann, 2006; Rojas, Monterubbianesi, & Dabús, 2019). All variables were taken as five-year nonoverlapping averages [1] and sampled from the WDI.…”

Factores del Crecimiento de Largo Plazo y Declinación en Argentina: Un análisis del Siglo XX

“…Besides, such instability is not only related to the business cycles but also to infl ation. In particular, Dabús et al (2012) state that this is a useful indicator of the general price level instability. In the same vein, previously Dabús (2000) presents evidence for Argentina reporting that high infl ation is more volatile and increases both aggregate uncertainty and relative price variability, which perturbs the normal functioning of the price system as allocator of resources.…”

“…Meanwhile, there is a vast literature that studies the relation between infl ation, like an indicator of instability, and economic growth. In this branch we have the works of Bruno and Easterly (1998), Bittencourt (2012), Dabús et al (2012) and Bittencourt et al (2015), between others, who fi nd a negative relationship between both variables. Similarly, Alagidede (2017) presents evidence indicating that excessive exchange rate volatility is detrimental for economic growth in Ghana.…”

Economic growth regimes: Evidence from Latin America

“…On the other hand, in relation to the specific work carried out in this paper, in an extension of Dabús et al (2016) explanatory variables such as income inequality, economic instability and the degree of economic openness are included. Consecutively, contrasting with Dabús et al (2016), we determine the probability of staying in a certain growth regime at different values of the explanatory variables mentioned above.…”