Infectious Burglaries. A Test of the Near Repeat Hypothesis

Townsley, Michael; Hömel, Ross; Chaseling, Janet

doi:10.1093/bjc/43.3.615

Cited by 236 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Following the results of Short et al (2010) and Johnson et al (2007), we found both residential and commercial crimes had a strong spatial clustering over short time periods suggesting a near-repeat offence dynamic, and over a longer time frame a core of break and entry offences (Sagovsky & Johnson, 2007;Townsley, Homel, & Chaseling, 2003). Our results indicated that perpetrators prefer to reoffend where they have local knowledge about residents' routine activities, possessions, and can confirm successful property entry (Wright & Decker, 1994).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Predictive crime mapping

Fitterer

Nelson

Nathoo

2014

Police Practice and Research

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Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have emerged as a key tool in intelligence-led policing and spatial predictions of crime are being used by many police services to reduce crime. Break and entries (BNEs) are one of the most patterned and predictable crime types, and may be particularly amendable to predictive crime mapping. A pilot project was conducted to spatially predict BNEs and property crime in Vancouver, Canada. Using detailed data collected by the Vancouver Police Department on where and when observed crimes occur, the statistical model was able to predict future BNEs for residential and commercial locations. Ideally implemented within a mobile GIS, the automated model provides continually updated predictive maps and may assist patrol units in self-deployment decisions. Future research is required to overcome computational and statistical limitations, and to preform model validation.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Predictive crime mapping

Fitterer

Nelson

Nathoo

2014

Police Practice and Research

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“…The results are shown in Table 2. For each type of crime, the average tenth nearest neighborhood distance was close to 130 m. This value is similar to the block size of the study area, which is a commonly used unit in spatial analysis [41]. Therefore, we used the tenth-order neighbor as the bandwidth.…”

Section: Global Colocation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Local Colocation Patterns of Crime and Land-Use Features in Wuhan, China

Han

Zhu

et al. 2017

IJGI

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Most studies of spatial colocation patterns of crime and land-use features in geographical information science and environmental criminology employ global measures, potentially obscuring spatial inhomogeneity. This study investigated the relationships of three types of crime with 22 types of land-use in Wuhan, China. First, global colocation patterns were examined. Then, local colocation patterns were examined based on the recently-proposed local colocation quotient, followed by a detailed comparison of the results. Different types of crimes were encouraged or discouraged by different types of land-use features with varying intensity, and the local colocation patterns demonstrated spatial inhomogeneity.

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“…The analogy between predators effi ciently locating food sources and offenders locating suitable targets are clear, but incorporating the optimal forager principle with rational choice theory provides additional insight into spatial crime patterns (see Johnson et al (2009b) for a detailed treatment). One useful implication is that crime will tend to cluster in space and time, the so-called near repeat process ( Townsley et al , 2003 ;Johnson et al , 2007b ). Near repeats are said to refl ect a communicability of risk; there is an elevated risk of future crime within a given distance and time from previous events.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-time dynamics of maritime piracy

Townsley

Oliveira

2012

Secur J

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The article examines space-time patterns of maritime piracy around the Horn of Africa. Using rational choice theory and optimal foraging theory as the theoretic frame, 6 years of recorded pirate attack data were used to test whether spatial and temporal attack patterns were independent. The results indicate evidence for a communicability of risk; that is, pirate activity clusters in space and time. Incorporating this fi nding means that forecasting of high-risk areas could be made more effective. The theoretical implication is that pirates ' target selection appears to be consistent with other crime types, such as burglary, car crime and shootings. The results have implications for informing maritime piracy prevention and suppression efforts.

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Infectious Burglaries. A Test of the Near Repeat Hypothesis

Cited by 236 publications

References 5 publications

Predictive crime mapping

Predictive crime mapping

The Local Colocation Patterns of Crime and Land-Use Features in Wuhan, China

Space-time dynamics of maritime piracy

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