Inference and computation with generalized additive models and their extensions

Wood, Simon N.

doi:10.1007/s11749-020-00711-5

Cited by 74 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Results using a zero-inflated negative binomial model were virtually indistinguishable from the results using a negative binomial distribution. Due to the prevalence of the negative binomial distribution in the use of modeling fisheries count data with overdispersion and moderate zero inflation (Barry and Welsh 2002;Drexler and Ainsworth 2013;Dance and Rooker 2019) and the potential overutilization of zero-inflated models (Wood 2020), we opted to model the LA Creel estimates using the negative binomial distribution. All statistical analyses were performed using R (R Core Team 2020) and the package mgcv (Wood 2006).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability of Fishery‐Dependent Indices for the Declining Louisiana Southern Flounder Fishery

Smith

Dance

West

et al. 2021

N American J Fish Manag

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In recent years, management agencies across the Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S. Atlantic have recognized Southern Flounder Paralichthys lethostigma as a declining fish stock. Population declines in coastal Louisiana are exhibited by indices of recruitment and biomass, which have reached levels that present management concerns. To develop a better understanding of this declining fishery, we examined fishery-dependent data collected by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries' recreational angler harvest survey (referred to as "LA Creel"). Data were modeled using generalized additive models to estimate temporal components of recreational Southern Flounder landings in both seasonality and trend. Over the study period (2014-2019), recreational landings exhibited a declining trend statewide. Strong seasonal peaks in the fall occurred statewide and regionally in every coastal management zone (i.e., estuary). Understanding the current fishery with the fine-scale resolution provided by the LA Creel survey can be used to help guide future management decisions in the pursuit of a sustainable management strategy inclusive of fishery-dependent information.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability of Fishery‐Dependent Indices for the Declining Louisiana Southern Flounder Fishery

Smith

Dance

West

et al. 2021

N American J Fish Manag

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“…Furthermore, as discussed in the next section, the REML estimates of regression coefficients have an asymptotically MAP Bayesian interpretation that is very useful for obtaining simulated credible intervals for predictions. For a recent review on inference and computation in GAMs see Wood ( 2020 ).…”

Section: Statistical Model For the Test Positive Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

A COVINDEX based on a GAM beta regression model with an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Scrucca

2022

Stat Methods Appl

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Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth. Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions about whether to enforce lockdowns or allow certain activities. The effective reproduction number is the standard index used in many countries for this goal. However, it is known that due to the delays between infection and case registration, its use for decision making is somewhat limited. In this paper a near real-time COVINDEX is proposed for monitoring the evolution of the pandemic. The index is computed from predictions obtained from a GAM beta regression for modelling the test positive rate as a function of time. The proposal is illustrated using data on COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and compared with . A simple chart is also proposed for monitoring local and national outbreaks by policy makers and public health officials.

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“…The prior for α 1 was already stated in (4). Through a restricted maximum likelihood approach, we estimate the corresponding hyperparameter γ 1 such that it maximizes the marginal likelihood of z and E given γ 1 (for additional information on this estimation procedure and general empirical Bayes theory for penalized splines see Wood, 2011Wood, , 2020. Regarding the linear coefficients θ 1 , we assume flat priors, i.e.…”

Section: Imputation-stepmentioning

confidence: 99%

All that Glitters is not Gold: Relational Events Models with Spurious Events

Fritz¹,

Mehrl²,

Thurner³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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As relational event models are an increasingly popular model for studying relational structures, the reliability of large-scale event data collection becomes increasingly important. Automated or human-coded events often suffer from relatively low sensitivity in event identification. At the same time, most sensor data is primarily based on actors' spatial proximity for predefined time windows; hence, the observed events could relate either to a social relationship or random co-location. Both examples lead to false positives in the observed events that may bias the estimates and inference. We propose an Error-corrected Relational Event Model (EcREM) as an extension to existing approaches for interaction data. The model provides a flexible solution for modeling data while controlling for false positives. Estimation of our model is carried out in an empirical Bayesian approach via data augmentation. In a simulation study, we investigate the properties of the estimation procedure. Consecutively, we apply this model to combat events from the Syrian civil war and to student co-location data. Results from both the simulation and the application identify the EcREM as a suitable approach to modeling relational event data in the presence of measurement error.

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Inference and computation with generalized additive models and their extensions

Cited by 74 publications

References 69 publications

Spatiotemporal Variability of Fishery‐Dependent Indices for the Declining Louisiana Southern Flounder Fishery

Spatiotemporal Variability of Fishery‐Dependent Indices for the Declining Louisiana Southern Flounder Fishery

A COVINDEX based on a GAM beta regression model with an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

All that Glitters is not Gold: Relational Events Models with Spurious Events

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