Inferring extinctions II: A practical, iterative model based on records and surveys

Thompson, Colin J.; Koshkina, Vira; Burgman, Mark A.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stone, Lewi

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2017.07.029

Cited by 37 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The Inaccessible Finch was most likely extinct by the late 1860s or early 1870s, and was probably the least numerous of the three extirpated species considered here. Our analyses support the conclusion that the Inaccessible Finch was extinct prior to the Challenger expedition in 1873 (Fisher et al 1969), though the search effort during that expedition was low compared to the potential available habitat, which would have influenced the probability that the finch would have been detected if it had still been extant, and therefore its estimated extinction date (Thompson et al 2017). Although the ultimate cause of this extinction remains unknown, it was probably driven by several concurrent pressures.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…Models were implemented using the R package spatExintct (Carlson et al 2018b), using integration increments of 0.001. Models that account for other aspects, such as detection probability and survey effort (Thompson et al 2017) were not considered here because of our desire to include uncertain records, and the lack of survey effort data with which to parameterize the model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Local extinctions of insular avifauna on the most remote inhabited island in the world

2018

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The overwhelming majority of avian extinctions have occurred on islands, where introduced predators, habitat loss, disease, and human persecution have resulted in the loss of over 160 species in the last 500 years. Understanding the timing and causes of these historical extinctions can be beneficial to identifying and preventing contemporary biodiversity loss, as well as understanding the nature of island ecosystems. Tristan da Cunha (henceforth "Tristan"), the most remote inhabited island in the world, has lost three species from the main island since permanent human settlement in 1811-the Tristan Moorhen (Gallinula nesiotis), Inaccessible Finch (Nesospiza acunhae acunhae), and Tristan Albatross (Diomedea dabbenena). We used recently developed Bayesian methods, and sightings of mixed certainty compiled from historical documents, to estimate the extinction date of these three species from Tristan based on specimens. We estimate that all three species were likely extirpated from Tristan between 1869 and 1880 following a period of significant habitat alteration and human overexploitation, and only the albatross had a high probability of persistence when Black Rats (Rattus rattus) arrived in 1882, the previously assumed cause of extinction for all three species. Better estimates of extinction dates are essential for understanding the causes of historical biodiversity loss, and the combination of historical ecology with modern statistical methods has given us novel insights into the timing and therefore the causes of extinctions on one of the most isolated islands in the world. KeywordsDiomedeidae · Historical ecology · Rallidae · Thraupidae · Tristan da Cunha Zusammenfassung Aussterben von Vogelarten auf der abgelegensten bewohnten Insel der Erde Die mit Abstand größte Anzahl ausgestorbener Vogelarten gab es auf Inseln, nachdem Räuber eingeschleppt und Lebensraum vernichtet wurde, sowie durch Krankheiten und Verfolgung durch den Menschen. All dies hat zu einem Verlust von mehr als 600 Vogelarten in den vergangenen 500 Jahren geführt. Das Verständnis von zeitlichen und ursächlichen Zusammenhängen dieses historischen Artenverlusts kann zum einen helfen, die ökologischen Besonderheiten von Inseln zu verstehen und zum anderen, akute Bedrohungen der Artenvielfalt zu erkennen und zu vermeiden. Tristan da Cunha ist die entlegenste bewohnte Insel der Erde; seit der dauerhaften Besiedlung durch Menschen (1811) sind auf der Hauptinsel drei Arten ausgestorben: die Tristan-Inselralle (Gallinula nesiotis), der Tristan-Ammerfink (Nesospiza acunhae acunhae) und der Tristan-Albatros (Diomedea dabbenena). Für die nicht immer ganz eindeutigen Sichtungen einzelner Tiere, historischen Dokumenten entnommen, wandten wir kürzlich entwickelte Bayessche Formeln an, um die Zeit des Aussterbens dieser drei Arten zu datieren; wir gehen davon aus, dass auf Tristan alle drei Arten zwischen 1869 und 1880 ausstarben. Dies geschah wohl nach einer Phase starker Besiedlungsaktivitäten und Raubbau durch Menschen, und nur der Albatros hatte noch eine g...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local extinctions of insular avifauna on the most remote inhabited island in the world

2018

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“…2017; Thompson et al. 2017; IUCN 2020). These 11 were selected because they were well dispersed across the study area, represented a diversity of distributions (i.e., single site endemics vs. broad geographic ranges), and sufficient information was available to support assessment decisions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vascular plant extinction in the continental United States and Canada

Knapp

Frances

Noss

et al. 2020

Conservation Biology

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Extinction rates are expected to increase during the Anthropocene. Current extinction rates of plants and many animals remain unknown. We quantified extinctions among the vascular flora of the continental United States and Canada since European settlement. We compiled data on apparently extinct species by querying plant conservation databases, searching the literature, and vetting the resulting list with botanical experts. Because taxonomic opinion varies widely, we developed an index of taxonomic uncertainty (ITU). The ITU ranges from A to F, with A indicating unanimous taxonomic recognition and F indicating taxonomic recognition by only a single author. The ITU allowed us to rigorously evaluate extinction rates. Our data suggest that 51 species and 14 infraspecific taxa, representing 33 families and 49 genera of vascular plants, have become extinct in our study area since European settlement. Seven of these taxa exist in cultivation but are extinct in the wild. Most extinctions occurred in the west, but this outcome may reflect the timing of botanical exploration relative to settlement. Sixty‐four percent of extinct plants were single‐site endemics, and many occurred outside recognized biodiversity hotspots. Given the paucity of plant surveys in many areas, particularly prior to European settlement, the actual extinction rate of vascular plants is undoubtedly much higher than indicated here.

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“…For each taxon, data were compiled from Australian Virtual Herbarium records (CHAH, 2016), Conservation and Listing Advice, Recovery Plans, peer-reviewed literature, the assessments of Leigh et al (1984) and Briggs & Leigh (1996), and consultation with experts with field knowledge of species and habitats. Variables included the last date collected, survey effort and adequacy (Thompson et al, 2017), degree of habitat modification, intensity and extent of threats (Keith et al, 2017), detectability and life history of the species, and any taxonomic issues (Table 1). Taxa for which expert opinion or examination of specimens indicated they are morphologically close to co-occurring taxa and may not be taxonomically distinct were removed from further assessment, as were those whose occurrence in Australia is considered dubious.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, they rely on an adequate sample size (typically considered to be > 5 records; Collen et al, 2010) and can seldom be applied to species with only one or two records, which is the case for many plants that are presumed extinct. Recent methodologies to estimate extinction probability have incorporated the timing and degree of threat, and a taxon's susceptibility (Keith et al, 2017), and record reliability and survey data (Thompson et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

To name those lost: assessing extinction likelihood in the Australian vascular flora

Silcock

Field

Walsh

et al. 2019

Oryx

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Extinction is a profound biological event, yet despite its finality it can be difficult to verify and many frameworks have been proposed to define formally that extinction has occurred. For most taxonomic groups and regions there is no reliable list of species considered to be probably or possibly extinct. The record of plant extinctions in Australia is no exception, characterized by high turn-over within lists, low transparency of attribution and lack of consistency between jurisdictions. This makes it impossible to evaluate how many plant taxa have become extinct in Australia. We present an ecological framework for assessing the likelihood of plant extinctions, based on taxonomic soundness, degree of habitat modification, detectability and search effort, underpinned by the best available expert knowledge. We show that, in sharp contrast to both the fate of the Australian fauna and prevailing assumptions, only  of  plant taxa currently listed as or assumed to be extinct are considered probably extinct, and a further  possibly extinct. Twenty taxa listed as or assumed to be extinct have dubious taxonomy or occurrence in Australia, and the remaining  taxa are considered possibly extant and further surveys are required to ascertain their status. The list of probably and possibly extinct plants is dwarfed by the number thought extinct but rediscovered since . Our method can be used for vascular floras in other regions characterized by well-documented and curated floras and high levels of expert knowledge, and provides a transparent platform for assessing changes in the status of biodiversity.

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Inferring extinctions II: A practical, iterative model based on records and surveys

Cited by 37 publications

References 21 publications

Local extinctions of insular avifauna on the most remote inhabited island in the world

Local extinctions of insular avifauna on the most remote inhabited island in the world

Vascular plant extinction in the continental United States and Canada

To name those lost: assessing extinction likelihood in the Australian vascular flora

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