Inferring geoeffective solar variability signature in stratospheric and tropospheric Northern Hemisphere temperatures

Dobrică, Venera; Pîrloagă, Răzvan; Stefan, Cristiana; Demetrescu, Camil

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2017.05.001

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…That said, other studies have also found evidence for a strong solar signal for temperature variability within the troposphere [27,78,89,91,354]. In particular, found intriguing correlations between a specific measure of solar activity (the area of the Sun covered by coronal holes) and air temperatures in the lower troposphere (as derived from satellite measurements) [27].…”

Section: "Top-down" Vs "Bottom-up" Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Hence, much of the literature investigating potential Sun/climate relationships has focused on identifying and comparing periodicities (or quasi-periodicities) in climate, solar activity and/or geomagnetic activity records. For example, Le Mouël et al [50,61,62,90,98,194,194,201,282,283]; Ruzmaikin and Feynman et al [73][74][75]; Scafetta et al [126,127,[259][260][261]284,285]; White et al [226,227]; Baliunas et al (1997) [286]; Lohmann et al (2004) [287]; Dobrica et al [86][87][88][89]; Mufti and Shah (2011) [288]; Humlum et al [47,63]; Laurenz, Lüdecke et al [64,289]; Pan et al (2020) [99]; Zhao et al (2020) [267].…”

Section: Similarity In Frequencies Of Solar Activity Metrics and Clim...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, other reviews and articles over this period have either been undecided, or else argued for significant but subtle effects of solar variability on climate change. For example: Labitzke and van Loon [65][66][67]; Beer et al (2000) [68]; Reid (2000) [69]; Carslaw et al (2002) [70]; Ruzmaikin et al [71][72][73][74][75]; Salby and Callaghan (2006) [76][77][78]; Kirkby (2007) [79]; de Jager et al (2010) [80]; Tinsley et al [81][82][83][84][85]; Dobrica et al [86][87][88][89]; Blanter et al (2012) [90]; van Loon et al [91][92][93]; Roy et al [94][95][96][97]; Lopes et al (2017) [98]; Pan et al (2020) [99].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Connolly¹,

Soon²,

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets – despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended “anthropogenic forcings” time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.

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Section: "Top-down" Vs "Bottom-up" Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Similarity In Frequencies Of Solar Activity Metrics and Clim...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Connolly¹,

Soon²,

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recently, some researchers have noted that there seem to be relationships between the strength of MJO events and the phase of the QBO [93], although the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models do not appear to be able to replicate these QBO-MJO connections [94]. At any rate, interactions between these and other "centers of action" [95] could potentially lead to complex Sun-climate relationships that may manifest differently on a regional scale as well as temporally [90,[96][97][98][99][100][101][102][103][104][105][106]. For a more detailed review of potential links between solar activity and atmospheric circulation and/or regional climatic variability we recommend Sections 2.6.1 and 2.6.3 of Connolly et al (2021) [76].…”

Section: Proposed Links Between Solar Activity and Atmospheric Circulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Using Mass Fluxes Calculated from Weather Balloon Measurements: North Atlantic Region as a Case Study

Connolly¹,

Connolly²,

Soon

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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In recent decades, efforts to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns have predominantly relied on either semi-empirical datasets (i.e., reanalyses) or modeled output (i.e., global climate models, GCMs). While both approaches can provide important insights, there is a need for more empirical data to supplement these approaches. In this paper, we demonstrate how the application of relatively simple calculations to the basic measurements from a standard weather balloon radiosonde can provide a vertical profile of the horizontal atmospheric mass fluxes. These mass fluxes can be resolved into their meridional (north/south) and zonal (east/west) components. This provides a new useful empirical tool for analyzing atmospheric circulations. As a case study, we analyze the results for a selected five stations along a fairly constant meridian in the North Atlantic sector from 2015–2019. For each station, we find the atmospheric mass flux profiles from the lower troposphere to mid-stratosphere are surprisingly coherent, suggesting stronger interconnection between the troposphere and stratosphere than previously thought. Although our five stations span a region nominally covered by the classical polar, Ferrel and Hadley meridional circulation cells, the results are inconsistent with those expected for polar and Ferrel cells and only partially consistent with that of a Hadley cell. However, the region is marked by very strong prevailing westerly (west to east) mass fluxes for most of the atmosphere except for the equatorial surface easterlies (“trade winds”). We suggest that the extension of the techniques of this case study to other stations and time periods could improve our understanding of atmospheric circulation patterns and their time variations.

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“…Among the terrestrial variables, the air temperature is most often considered to be susceptible to solar/geomagnetic activity 6 , 8 , 17 – 20 . However, the responses of other terrestrial variables in addition to temperature to solar/geomagnetic activity have also been considered 4 , 11 , 12 , 21 – 26 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the solar variability signature in climate variables by information theory and wavelet coherence

Mares

Dobrică

Mares

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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The present study aims to investigate the possible influence of solar/geomagnetic forcing on climate variables, such as the drought index, Danube discharge and large-scale atmospheric indices. Our analysis was performed separately for each season for two time periods, 1901–2000 and 1948–2000. The relationship between terrestrial variables and external indices was established based on the application of (1) information theory elements, namely, synergy, redundancy, total correlation, transfer entropy and (2) wavelet coherence analysis. Bandpass filtering has also been applied. The most significant signature of the solar/geomagnetic forcing in the climate variables was obtained for the data smoothed by the bandpass filter. According to our results, significant solar/geomagnetic forcing appears in the terrestrial variables with a delay of 2–3 years.

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Inferring geoeffective solar variability signature in stratospheric and tropospheric Northern Hemisphere temperatures

Cited by 4 publications

References 45 publications

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Analyzing Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Using Mass Fluxes Calculated from Weather Balloon Measurements: North Atlantic Region as a Case Study

Assessing the solar variability signature in climate variables by information theory and wavelet coherence

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