Inflação, Desemprego E Choques Cambiais: Estimativas Var Para a Economia Brasileira

Abstract

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Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment in Brazil: An ARDL Approach

“…For the Brazilian case, there is no consensus about which variables are the most indicated, or more assertively, which compose a better set of variables to understand the dynamics of unemployment and, therefore, there is no agreement on which theory best describes [5]- [11]. In Brazil some particularities make the different approaches more propitious to the diversity of results.…”

“…The authors used nonlinear models of the Phillips curve for forecasting purposes. The controversies are also found in studies using the new keynesian Phillips curve conclude that innovations in the expectation of inflation are transferred to inflation the following month and point to the situation that the increase in inflation does not reduce unemployment [5]. Reference [14] making use of several proxies for the determinants of unemployment in several periods confirmed the effects of unemployment on inflation in the short term and, in addition, indicates positive results on inflation with a devaluation of the exchange rate.…”