Inflation and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Karahan, Özcan; Çolak, Olcay

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-39927-6_3

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Regarding costs for decision makers and policymakers, with the results in Tables 5 and 6, there is a considerable increase in the economic activity of Mexico ∆(lnIGAE t ) when opting for contractive monetary measures to reduce consumer price levels ∆(lnI NPC − ). The present research is significant in the same direction as observed in studies for Bangladesh (Hossain et al 2021) and Turkey (Karahan and Çolak 2020).…”

Section: Short-term Implicationssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Therefore, the NARDL (12,9,10) model conducted in this research is useful for verifying the existence of a monthly cointegration relationship in Mexico between global economic activity and the level of consumer prices. Specifically, the NARDL model covers the ARDL deficiency helping to show the analysis of long-term nonlinear associations (Tinoco-Zermeño et al 2014;Olugbenga and Dada 2020;Karahan and Çolak 2020;Cerezo-García et al 2019). The NARDL model was used considering the results in Table 2 for stationarity analysis, order of integration, and non-linearity, where it was identified that lnIGAE is stationary at level I(0) and lnINPC at first level I(1), which meets the requirement for possible consideration in NARDL models.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

Trejo-García,

Valencia-Romero,

Soto-Rosales

et al. 2024

Economies

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The effects of various geopolitical tensions, conflicts between countries and the global post-pandemic COVID-19 have caused an acceleration in the price level in many countries around the world. This research focuses on Mexico since its monetary policy has created intricate interactions between inflation and growth in the short and long term, maintaining recently one of the highest real interest rates in Latin America (on average 5.75% vs. the US 2.3%). This paper examines the asymmetric link between the National Consumer Price Index and the Global Economic Activity Index in Mexico during the period 1994–2023. To do this, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Delay (NARDL) model is used with monthly data, which will allow the relationship between both variables to be more adequately investigated. The main empirical finding is that upward or downward shocks to the consumer price index have caused different effects in magnitude and sign on economic growth over time. Finally, several reasonable, practical, and feasible recommendations are provided for the design of the monetary policy considering non-linear effects.

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Section: Short-term Implicationssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussion Of the Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

Trejo-García,

Valencia-Romero,

Soto-Rosales

et al. 2024

Economies

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“…To the best of the authors’ knowledge, we have not been able to track previous applications of the ARDL method in studying availability or access-related parameters of food security. However, there are abundant examples of an effective utilization of the ARDL in revealing the interplays between domestic supply and imports [ 53 , 95 ], trade balances [ 53 , 96 , 97 ], inflation [ 98 , 99 ], international currency exchange [ 100 , 101 ], and health [ 102 ].

where Δ = first difference operator;

= constant term;

= short-run elasticities of the variables; i = ARDL model lag order;

= error correction term;

= error disturbance; t = time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Erokhin

Tianming

2020

IJERPH

245

173

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The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto’s causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.

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“…Among these factors are oil prices (Rostin et al, 2019;Akinsola and Odhiambo, 2020), oil price volatility (Eyden et al, 2019;Maheu et al, 2020), energy consumption (Ozcan and Ozturk, 2019;Wei et al, 2020), money supply and internet (Saidi et al, 2020). Other factors include information and communication technology (ICT) (Bahrini and Qaffas, 2019;Nguyen et al, 2020), consumption expenditure (Rumbia et al, 2020), inflation (Karahan and Çolak, 2020) and public debt (Bexheti et al, 2020;Ndoricimpa, 2020). Based on the research sites, studies investigating these factors can be grouped into two research groups: the group of studies conducted in a particular country and the group of studies carried out in a group of countries in the form of panels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This increase in interest rates will then reduce investment and economic growth (Saidi et al, 2019). The negative effect of inflation on economic growth is in controversy with the Keynesian view that states that inflation can positively affect economic growth (Karahan and Çolak, 2020). Fischer (1993), andLópez-Villavicencio andMignon (2011) state that the positive or negative effect of inflation on economic growth will depend on a certain level of inflation called the inflation threshold.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Rosnawintang

Tajuddin

Adam

et al. 2020

IJEEP

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This paper aims to examine the effect of crude oil price volatility, the internet, and inflation on economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). To test this effect, we use the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and panel data with annual time series for the period from 1995 to 2018. The test results show that only the internet affects economic growth in the long run, and this effect is positive. Meanwhile, in the short run, there is an impact of crude oil price volatility, the internet, and inflation on economic growth in all ASEAN-5 countries. However, the effect of inflation on economic growth only exists in Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

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Inflation and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Cited by 12 publications

References 11 publications

On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

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