There is a common belief that the disappointing economic performance in the 1970s can be attributed in good part to the interaction of tax rules, inflation, and capital formation. In this paper, we reassess the relationships between inflation, the tax code, and investment incentives because previous results are based on a number of tenuous assumptions whose impact has not been fully appreciated. We also question the appropriateness of the conventional user cost formulation, and derive an alternative measure taking explicit account of the role of debt --acquisition, retirement, and net-of-tax interest payments -and the equityholders' ownership of the firm. Our numerical results show that previously reported disincentives for acquiring capital goods in general and against longer-lived capital in particular are attenuated, and in a number of cases reversed, under various sets of assumptions. Differences in results stemming from the conventional and modified user costs are highlighted, and are illustrated by a comparison of the U.S. Treasury's tax reform proposals under the two formulations.
Robert S. ChirinkoStephen Did the high inflation of the l9TOs depress incentives for businesses to invest in plant and equipment? This question has been investigated in a number of studies utilizing variants of the conventional neoclassical user cost of capital, and a general conclusion emerging from this work, shared by policyinakers (White House, 1981), is that the interaction of inflation with the existing tax code has reduced firms' incentives to acquire capital (Feldstein, 1982, Kopcke, 1981. Inflation affects investment decisions by causing variations in the value of tax depreciation deductions, the firm's discount rate, and the cost of debt (as we shall see, the latter two channels are not always identical)..i' In this paper, we reassess the relationship between inflation and investment incentives because previous results are based on a number of tenuous assumptions whose impact has not been fully appreciated. These include the adjustment of financial returns to inflation, the appropriateness of the capital structure invariance assumption, and the role of personal taxes. Calculations with a range of relevant parameters indicate that previously reported disincentives for acquiring capital goods are attenuated, and in a number of cases reversed, under various configurations of these key assumptions. Our simulations highlight that in an inflationary environment, incentives for acquiring longer-lived capital are depressed relatively more than those for shorter-lived assets only under a rather restrictive set of assumptions. Furthermore, we show that the results are extremely sensitive to the exact values of underlying parameters, which are unlikely to be known with any accuracy.-2-In conventional definitions of the user cost (Hall and Jorgenson, 1967)., the firm's discount rate is defined by the opportunity cost of funds, a weighted average of the costs of equity and debt (including tax considerations) with weights ...